Indiana Basketball Preview and Picks: Can the Hoosiers Keep Purdue Skidding?

One of college basketball's best rivalries is renewed Tuesday night at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, where Indiana hosts No. 12 Purdue.

The Hoosiers are in serious need of a resume-boosting win in they want to make the NCAA Tournament in coach Darian DeVries first season, while the Boilermakers are looking to stay afloat in a heated Big Ten title race after two straight losses in coach Matt Painter's 21st season.

Going into DeVries' first matchup against Purdue, here are three picks, based on the odds from the Draft Kings Sportsbook.

Favorite player prop

Trey Kaufman-Renn Purdue Basketball — Purdue Boilermakers forward Trey Kaufman-Renn (4) is defended by Penn State Nittany Lions forward Josh Reed (10) at Mackey Arena. | Marc Lebryk-Imagn Images

Purdue forward Trey Kaufman-Renn's production has regressed from his junior to senior year, going from 20.1 to 12.5 points per game. Part of that is due to a decrease in nearly four field goal attempts per game, but his field goal percentage has also dipped from 59.5% to 55.9%.

I still have no doubts about Kaufman-Renn's ability, however, and believe the biggest reason for his decreased scoring is that Purdue has more scoring options with the addition of Oscar Cluff, Daniel Jacobsen and Omer Mayer this season. Kaufman-Renn has had a few big games against top-tier opponents, like his 19-point effort against Alabama and 18-point game against Auburn.

He hasn't scored 13-plus points in the last five games, but he should be in for a big night, given his matchup.

Indiana's front court play has been a weakness all season, some of it simply due to roster construction. DeVries recruited 6-foot-10 Davidson transfer Reed Bailey to play center, and he's really more of a stretch power forward. Sam Alexis, a Florida transfer, brings much more physicality and rebounding ability, but he's only 6-foot-9. With little to no depth behind them, other forwards like Tucker DeVries and Trent Sisley will have to play above their weight Tuesday night.

The biggest worry with this pick is that Kaufman-Renn's interior scoring could come from Cluff and Jacobsen, who should also be able to have their way against a small Indiana front court. But go with the best player here, Kaufman-Renn, who should be able to pick apart Indiana's 57th-ranked defense in the pick-and-roll game with point guard Braden Smith all night.

Pick: Trey Kaufman-Renn 13+ points, -120 odds

Shootout or low-scoring affair?

Lamar Wilkerson Indiana Basketball — Indiana Hoosiers guard Lamar Wilkerson (3) is guarded by Rutgers Scarlet Knights guard Harun Zrno (13) at Jersey Mike's Arena. | Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images

The only path to victory I see for Indiana is taking and making a whole bunch of 3-pointers, given its defensive shortcomings and interior mismatches.

That has been the strategy for much of the season, as the Hoosiers rank 23rd nationally with 29.5 3-point attempts per game and 91st at 35.8% from beyond the arc. That has translated to the 91st-ranked scoring offense and the No. 28 offensive efficiency on KenPom.

Indiana's leading scorer, Lamar Wilkerson, has also shot better from 3-point range at home (41.6%) compared to on the road (37.8%). It's an even bigger gap for second-leading scorer Tucker DeVries, who shoots 34% from the Assembly Hall 3-point line but just 26.4% on the road.

On the other hand, Purdue's offense is even more potent. Led by All-American point guard Braden Smith, the Boilermakers are second in KenPom's offensive efficiency rating, 50th with 84 points per game and 22nd with 38.3% 3-point shooting. They don't hurt themselves either, ranking ninth with just 9.3 turnovers per game.

Indiana held Rutgers to 59 points in its last game, but gave up 81-plus points in three of its previous four matchups. Purdue just gave up 88 points on its home court to Illinois, led by Keaton Wagler's 46 points. I don't expect to see a ton of defense in this matchup.

Pick: Over 151.5

Picking against the spread

Braden Smith Purdue Basketball — Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith (3) is defended by UCLA Bruins guard Donovan Dent (2) at Pauley Pavilion. | Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

Series history may not matter much, given that Indiana has a first-year coach and zero scholarship players who've ever competed in the in-state rivalry. But it still feels important to note that Indiana has won three of the last four matchups in Bloomington.

And despite all of their success outside of the rivalry, Purdue's big three of Smith, Kaufman-Renn and Fletcher Loyer is just 3-3 against Indiana in their careers. So in front of what should be an amped-up crowd at Assembly Hall, with the Hoosiers desperately needing their first Quad 1 win of the season, I expect Indiana to keep this one fairly close.

Not only are the Boilermakers coming off back-to-back losses, but their last four wins have all come by single digits against USC, Iowa, Penn State, and Washington. None of those teams is above .500 in Big Ten play, and they have a combined 11-24 record in conference.

Purdue's experience will come through late, but not without a bit of a scare.

Pick: Purdue -5.5
Final score prediction: 88-79

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