Indiana Women’s Basketball Bracketology: Hoosiers In, But Can Seed Be Improved?

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Since struggling in the first two weeks of the season with losses to Harvard and Butler, the Indiana women’s basketball team has been full steam ahead as far as its NCAA Tournament chances are concerned.

Losses to North Carolina and UCLA since then are not going to hurt the Hoosiers resume given that both the Tar Heels and Bruins are top 20 teams in the NCAA NET rankings. Take those two losses out and Indiana has won all of its other 10 games since Nov. 17.

Because of that, the 11-4 Hoosiers are solidly in the NCAA Tournament as far as women’s bracketologists are concerned.

There aren’t many women’s bracketologists in comparison to men’s bracketologists, but there is agreement that the Hoosiers would be in the 7-9 seed range.

ESPN’s bracketology, updated Friday morning, has Indiana headed to the Columbia Regional at South Carolina as a No. 8 seed playing Harvard. This would be a rematch of the game played at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Nov. 7. The Crimson won 72-68.

This is suspect. The NCAA does not like to pair up teams who played in the regular season, though it’s not a hard and fast rule. Indiana could retain that No. 8 seed and play at one of the other three regional sites featuring the 1-16 and 8-9 games or Harvard could be shipped elsewhere.

Herhoopstats.com also has Indiana at the Columbia Regional, but playing Florida State and as a No. 9 seed.

College Sports Madness has the Hoosiers as a No. 7 seed playing St. Joseph’s in a regional at Georgia Tech.

The worthiness of Indiana’s NCAA Tournament credentials are not at issue at the moment – though any losing streak would immediately change that narrative.

What is at issue is what chance the Indiana women have to improve their seed. Being in the 8-9 slot is not a good scenario. It means traveling to the home site of a No. 1 seed – teams that rarely lose on their home floors in the first and second rounds.

Only five non-No. 1 seeded teams have ever advanced from the No. 1 seed host regional. The last time it happened for a team seeded in the 8-9 range was 2023 when No. 8 Ole Miss defeated No. 1 Stanford, but prior to that, it hadn’t happened since 2009.

So for Indiana, avoidance of being on that seed line is paramount. Is there an opportunity for the Hoosiers to improve their standing?

With the Big Ten being as strong as it is, 13 Big Ten teams are in the top 50 in the NCAA NET rankings, the Hoosiers have plenty of chances in front of them to improve their lot – and it starts on Sunday at Iowa.

Much like their Indiana male counterparts, Indiana’s women’s basketball team has a stretch of difficult games in front of them. The next six games and the next eight of nine games will all be Quad 1 or Quad 2 opportunities for the Hoosiers.

Here’s a list of those games. The combined record of these opponents is 95-31:

• Jan. 12 at Iowa: This is a Quad 1 game. Any game against a top 45 team on the road is a Quad 1 game. The Hawkeyes are No. 31 in the NET.

• Jan. 16 Illinois at home: This is a Quad 2 game. Illinois is No. 36 in the NET, so this is a Quad 2 home game.

• Jan. 24 at Oregon: A Quad 1 game. The Ducks are No. 35 in the NET.

• Jan. 27 at Washington: A Quad 2 game, barely. The Huskies are No. 46 in the NET, the top of the threshold for a Quad 2 road win.

• Feb. 2 Nebraska at home: A Quad 2 game. The Cornhuskers are No. 34 in the NET.

• Feb. 6 Rutgers at home: The one non-Quad 1-2 game in the next nine games as the Scarlet Knights are No. 134 in the NET. This is a Quad 4 game.

• Feb. 9 at Minnesota: A Quad 1 game. The Golden Gophers are No. 28 in the NET.

• Feb 12 at Michigan: A Quad 1 game. The Wolverines are No. 25 in the NET.

It will be a daunting task for the Hoosiers to negotiate this stretch of games. Success in them will determine the direction of the season – whether Indiana climbs the seed list and gives itself a chance to be a host site for the fourth straight season.

Or whether the Hoosiers play their way on to the NCAA Tournament bubble or even on the outside looking in.

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