The Big Ten Tournament: One Step Forward, One Step Back For Indiana

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – Before last week, Indiana was staring down games at No. 11 Michigan State and a tough home game against UCLA. Given that the Hoosiers had lost five in a row, no one would have been out of bounds to believe Indiana’s losing streak would reach seven.

Had that happened, Indiana would have been under considerable pressure to make the 15-team Big Ten Tournament.

Of course, that didn’t happen. Indiana earned a 71-67 win at Michigan State in an unlikely upset Tuesday. However, the Hoosiers couldn’t build on that victory and lost 72-68 to the Bruins Friday.

One step forward, one step back. Indiana’s 1-1 week didn’t do much to clear the air as far as its long-shot NCAA Tournament hopes are concerned, but it did somewhat clarify the Big Ten Tournament prospects.

It would take a highly unlikely series of results to keep Indiana (6-9 currently) out of the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana would have to lose out, and some of the Big Ten’s bottom feeders would have to pull off upsets to make that happen.

Indiana is not out of consideration to get a bye to day two of the Big Ten Tournament, though the Hoosiers will have to play much better than they have been to pull that off.

So the doomsday scenario of not making the Big Ten Tournament at all is still alive, but on life support. That win at Michigan State mostly eased that concern.

As it was for the first stories we did on Indiana’s Big Ten Tournament prospects, all of the non-Indiana games will be determined by barttorvik.com’s score projections.

Here’s some Big Ten Tournament scenarios to consider for the Hoosiers.

Where Indiana Stands By Bart Torvik’s Projections

Indiana would finish 8-12 in the Big Ten and would be in 12th place by itself. In this case, Indiana would be the No. 12 seed and face No. 13 seed Rutgers on the first day of the Big Ten Tournament at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.

In this scenario, Indiana finishes two games out of ninth, the last position available to avoid day one of the expanded 15-team Big Ten Tournament. The first day of the tournament features three games instead of the two it previously had.

A curious note? If all of Torvik’s projections came to pass there would be a five-way tie across the top of the Big Ten with Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Purdue and Wisconsin all finishing 15-5 in league play.

What If Indiana Wins All Of Its Remaining Games?

The Hoosiers would finish 11-9 in the Big Ten and in a seventh place tie with Illinois. Indiana would be the No. 8 seed in the Big Tournament as the Hoosiers lose a tiebreaker with the Fighting Illini. Indiana would play No. 9 seed Nebraska on day two of the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Loses All Of Its Remaining Games?

Indiana would finish 6-14 and in a three-way tie for 13th with Northwestern and Iowa. The Hoosiers would lose tiebreakers with both the Wildcats and Hawkeyes, having lost to both, and would be the No. 15, and final, seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana would play No. 10 Nebraska in this scenario on day one of the Big Ten Tournament.

What If Indiana Wins Its Remaining Home Games?

Indiana has home games left against Purdue, Penn State and Ohio State. If the Hoosiers ran the table at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall, Indiana would 9-11 in the Big Ten and finish in a three-way tie for 10th place with Southern California and Ohio State.

Indiana would win tiebreakers with both the Trojans and Buckeyes, but it wouldn’t do the Hoosiers any good as far as avoiding day one of the Big Ten Tournament. Indiana would be the No. 10 seed and play No. 15 Iowa on day one at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.

What Is The Minimum Standard For Indiana To Make The Big Ten Tournament?

As mentioned above, Indiana can lose all of its remaining games and still make the tournament.

The only way that could change is if Penn State or Washington get to six wins.

In the case of Penn State, it would mean that Penn State would win at Indiana on Feb. 26 and have one additional win Torvik does not predict. For Washington, it would mean the Huskies would win against the Hoosiers in Seattle on March 1 and have one more win than Torvik predicts.

In Penn State’s case, it would change the nature of the tiebreaker with Indiana, which the Hoosiers currently own. If Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern and Penn State finish in a four-way tie, the Hoosiers are at the bottom of that tiebreaker.

As Washington is concerned, it would depend on the combination of which schools would be in the tiebreaker with Indiana. If Indiana, Iowa, Northwestern and Washington are in the same tiebreaker? The Hoosiers are out. However, Washington can also get to six wins in a way that Indiana isn’t affected, too. It just depends on results elsewhere.

What Is The Minimum Standard To Get A Bye To Day Two Of The Big Ten Tournament?

As mentioned above, Indiana will avoid day one of the Big Ten Tournament if the Hoosiers win out. That’s the only guaranteed method to avoid the first day.

Depending on what combination of results happen elsewhere, Indiana can avoid day one at 10-10 or even 9-11. Getting to 10-10 in the Big Ten obviously presents the most favorable outcomes in this regard.

If Indiana went 9-11 and still avoided day one of the Big Ten Tournament? The Hoosiers would have had a lot of things go their way to get there.

There’s still too many scenarios to realistically map out, but Indiana’s margin for error to avoid having to win five games in five days is slipping away for the Hoosiers.

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