Todd’s Take: Indiana Is Capable Of Out-Performing Predicted L’s To Come

BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – The narrative around Indiana men’s basketball has been constant since early January.

Indiana men’s basketball got a relatively favorable early draw in its 20-game Big Ten slate with a slew of winnable games piled up at the start. All eyes were on an 11-game stretch starting Jan. 11 at Iowa in which the Hoosiers play a schedule featuring a spate of Quad 1 win opportunities.

UCLA has since slipped out of Quad 1 range, but you get the point. It’s an important run of games that will make or break the Hoosiers.

Part of the narrative that came with this portion of the schedule was that the predictive metrics websites – Kenpom.com and Barttorvik.com – predicted losses in every single one of those 11 contests.

We’re four games into that stretch, and the narrative is still relevant. Indiana is not predicted to win its next seven contests after its 79-70 loss at Northwestern Wednesday.

I have a lot of time for both Kenpom and Torvik’s sites. They enhance our understanding of the game in ways that aren’t possible through the traditional box score. I like Torvik, in particular, because of the way his site breaks down player characteristics.

As far as predictive measures are concerned, both sites have been relatively accurate. So far, Indiana is 1-3 in this stretch of 11 games in which it was predicted to be winless.

However, I think we need to be a bit careful in going too far in using predicted outcomes as a narrative. Computed outcomes don’t always jive with other established realities that don’t depend solely on offensive and defensive efficiency.

Right now, Torvik has Indiana winning three of its remaining games and Kenpom has Indiana only winning two more games. That would seem to suggest a maximum of eight Big Ten wins for the Hoosiers, but both sites have Indiana finishing at 9-11 in the Big Ten. What gives?

Kenpom notes that “projected record is based on cumulative probabilities of winning each game and may not equal the sum of individual game predictions.”

Indiana Hoosiers guard Anthony Leal (3) and Northwestern Wildcats forward Nick Martinelli (2) go for the ball during the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. | David Banks-Imagn Images

In other words, some of these predicted outcomes could swing either way – Indiana is projected to lose by a single possession in three of Kenpom’s predicted Indiana defeats – so the final predicted record is a bit of a mathematical hedge. (One reason why these predicted scores should be approached with caution as the premise in any seasonal narrative.)

As we break these games down, let’s get this obvious point out of the way first. Anything is possible with this Indiana team, because the one thing we do know is that every Hoosier is capable of wild swings in form both within games and from one contest to the next. The only certainty is uncertainty.

With that disclaimer out of the way, how does this predicted doom-and-gloom scenario stand up to scrutiny?

Predicted losses at Purdue, Wisconsin and Michigan State in this seven-game stretch are not a surprise. If Indiana wins one of them, it would be a big boost. But realistically, all three should be pegged as losses.

Later, Indiana goes to Oregon on March 4. Though the Ducks have demonstrated some vulnerability on their home floor with three Big Ten home defeats, this one gets chalked up as an Indiana loss. That’s four more Big Ten defeats and means Indiana will lose at least eight Big Ten games based on its current 5-4 conference record.

It’s the other remaining Indiana opponents that offer opportunities for the Hoosiers to do better than they’re predicted to do.

I think an 11-9 Big Ten record is still attainable, though a 10-10 mark is more realistic. For the sake of aiming higher, let’s paint a picture where Indiana gets to 11-9 in the Big Ten.

Indiana would have to get projected wins against Penn State at home and Washington on the road. Is Indiana capable of losing both? Of course! This is inconsistent Indiana we’re talking about, but I’d go into each of those games expecting a win.

That leaves home games against Maryland, Michigan, UCLA, Purdue and Ohio State to get four more victories needed to get to 11-9. Indiana can only lose one of them.

Given the current mood – not 24 hours after the loss at Northwestern – even entertaining the idea that Indiana can go 4-1 against those teams, or 3-2 required to finish 10-10, might seem wildly optimistic. UCLA has the lowest NET ranking among that quintet at No. 35.

I assure you that I have not smoked anything mind-altering in writing this column, but let’s examine some traits of these opponents instead of just relying on a predicted outcome spreadsheet.

Maryland, Indiana’s next opponent at noon ET on Sunday, is No. 24 in the NET and Kenpom. The Terrapins are No. 19 on Torvik. The Terps have good bones, but there’s one important factor that stands out – Maryland has not won on the road going into Thursday's game at Illinois. Their 0-4 travels include a 75-69 defeat at Washington, the Huskies’ only Big Ten victory.

Northwestern Wildcats guard Jalen Leach (1) defends Maryland Terrapins center Derik Queen (25) during the first half at Welsh-Ryan Arena. | David Banks-Imagn Images

I’m not sure what faith one can have in a predicted outcome when Maryland has not done what it’s predicted it will do on Sunday. I expect Indiana to bounce back and win this home game.

You can apply the same logic to UCLA – the Bruins come to Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall on Valentine’s Day.

The Bruins haven’t won east of the Rocky Mountains and just recently ended a four-game losing streak. The Bruins will be on the back end of a challenging Illinois-Indiana road trip. There’s no reason to think Indiana can’t beat UCLA in Bloomington.

Indiana faces Ohio State in its regular season finale on March 8. The Buckeyes showed something when they rallied to win 73-70 at Purdue on Tuesday – a road win no other Big Ten team can claim at present.

Ohio State didn’t have Devin Royal when the Hoosiers defeated them 77-76 in overtime in Columbus last Friday, but Indiana didn’t have Malik Reneau, so that’s a wash. Ohio State has been just as inconsistent as Indiana has been – a big reason why the Buckeyes are still 1 1/2 games behind Indiana in the Big Ten race even after the Hoosiers lost at Northwestern. I think Indiana should be able to beat the Buckeyes at home.

Michigan Wolverines head coach Dusty May reacts during overtime against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Williams Arena. | Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

That leaves Indiana in a position to win against either Michigan or Purdue at home to get to 11 Big Ten wins. I think Indiana can beat one, but not both. The Wolverines (who visit Feb. 8) and the Boilermakers (Feb. 23) are proven road winners. Purdue has four road wins, Michigan has three.

I think Indiana can find a way to win one of these games. Maybe Purdue more so than Michigan, given the rivalry factor, and the fact that the Michigan game could turn Assembly Hall poisonous if Dusty May’s Wolverines put a hurt on Mike Woodson’s Hoosiers. (Given Indiana’s penchant for creating the most angst for itself, this scenario would be right on-brand.)

So there’s a path for Indiana to get to 11-9 or 10-10 in the Big Ten. Would either record be something to celebrate? Not at all. It would likely keep Indiana on the NCAA Tournament bubble going into the Big Ten Tournament. Beyond that, it would still fall short of expectation. Indiana fans won’t be sated, and Woodson’s future at Indiana would be very tenuous.

However, it’s a little bit sunnier than the doom and gloom parade of L’s suggested by the predictive analytics. We’ll see whether my gut feeling takes away some of the predicted pain to come.

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