Game Day Prediction: Revamped Offense, Returning Defensive Leaders – Enough for a Turnaround?
To understand what the 2022 Indiana football team is trying to rebound from, start with a distraught Tom Allen after a 44-7 loss to Purdue that felt equal parts rock bottom and relief after a 2-10 season.
"I've never been through a season this difficult coaching for 30 years," Allen said. "It's been tough. Really, really tough. We're going to do a tremendous job of evaluating where we are, and make the changes that need to be made and move forward."
That evaluation process meant 35 new players – 22 that compiled the highest-ranked recruiting class in program history and 13 transfers that each have a chance to be immediate-impact players. Allen replenished his coaching staff with five new staff members – offensive coordinator Walt Bell, defensive coordinator Chad Wilt, running backs coach Craig Johnson, wide receivers coach Adam Henry and defensive line coach Paul Randolph.
Allen and his staff were as secretive as possible during fall camp regarding what the Hoosiers will look like in 2022. It was a ploy to keep their opponents in the dark, force them to study every possibility and make in-game adjustments, combined with genuine uncertainty and a 'prove it on game day' message to its own players.
Because the truth is, Allen will take the field on Friday night against Illinois with a team that will rely on more fresh faces than ever before.
"It definitely creates a lot more anxiety for the coaches, but at the same time a lot of excitement," Allen said on Monday. "I can't wait. I wish we were playing tomorrow."
Members of the No. 17-ranked Indiana football team take the field prior to kickoff against Iowa at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City on Saturday, Sept. 4, 2021
Bryon Houlgrave/The Register via Imagn Content Services, LLC
Indiana's efforts to bounce back from the 2021 collapse won't be easy, but there's a path to optimism heading into kickoff against the Illini.
It can't get any worse than last season, right? It's not that simple, but what happened in 2021 was unprecedented in a variety of ways. Indiana was starting a walk-on fourth-string quarterback alongside a walk-on running back by the end of the year and forcing some of its only healthy defenders to play 80-plus snaps.
It wasn't just the amount of injuries, but injuries to players in key spots put the Hoosiers in a hole requiring an entire offseason to dig out of. 2020 first-team All-American cornerback Tiawan Mullen started just four games and big-play threat D.J. Matthews tore his ACL in Week 4, just to name a few.
Matthews gives Indiana an explosive receiver with gamebreaking speed on the outside, and he's one of few familiar faces returning on an Indiana offense that ranked near the bottom of the Big Ten in every offensive category. Coaches and teammates have talked highly of incoming transfer receivers Emery Simmons and Cam Camper, and coach Adam Henry has mentored some of the NFL's best pass-catchers.
Shaun Shivers transfers in, eager to prove that he can be a lead running back after seeing his role diminish over time at Auburn. Allen said Shivers brings speed the Hoosiers haven't had recently, and he isn't afraid to run defenders over, either. Add in North Carolina transfer Josh Henderson and hybrid freshman Jaylin Lucas, and Indiana could have an exciting and versatile backfield.
But where the largest source of optimism comes is from the leaders on defense. Team captain Cam Jones and All-Big Ten defensive backs Tiawan Mullen, Jaylin Williams and Devon Matthews couldn't stomach leaving Indiana after a 2-10 season, and they seem anxious to re-write the program's reputation.
"We’re blessed enough to have another season to do something about it and to change the narrative of a 2-10 season," Mullen said. "I guess everybody forgot what we did the first two years. They all discredit us, but it’s all good, we have a 2022 season and we’re ready to put it on display.”
Because for them, last year was an aberration. Dating back to 2018, Indiana had already won six-plus games or was playing for bowl eligibility in the final week of every season. Those four players – and they aren't the only ones still here – are accustomed to greater winning ways. There's something to be said about the habits that can form. Some say 2020 was the outlier, but for many of the current Hoosiers, in reality, it was 2021. And for Allen, 2022 will prove which is true.
"2022 is gonna show you: What was the outlier, 2020, or 2021?" Allen said.
Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Cam Jones (4) motions the number 1 after stopping a run during the first quarter against the Cincinnati Bearcats at Memorial Stadium
© Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Indiana is back to playing the underdog role in 2022, and that's a good thing. Mullen admitted at Big Ten Media Days that Indiana didn't handle expectations well last year, and now has a chip on its shoulder more similar to the 2019 and 2020 seasons.
“When you get a little success, it can sometimes go over your head," Mullen said. "And that’s what happened."
Indiana will have the comfort of playing at home on Friday night with a full game's worth of film on the Illini, and it's no secret that the Hoosiers have a big task on their hands to limit Illinois running back Chase Brown. If Indiana can slow Brown down enough to force Illinois to win the game through the air with quarterback Tommy DeVito, I favor Indiana's secondary in that matchup.
But where the most concern lies for Indiana are the two positions that underperformed the most in 2021 – quarterbacks and offensive line.
We won't know if the starting quarterback is Jack Tuttle or Connor Bazelak until Indiana's first offensive possession. Tuttle has won big games as a Hoosiers – think 2020 at Wisconsin – but he's also been wildly inaccurate with a 55.9 completion percentage, isn't a difference-maker with his feet and has never staked his claim as 'the guy' despite opportunities the last two seasons.
More likely, in my opinion, is that the Missouri transfer Bazelak gets the nod as Indiana commits to a completely new-look offense. Bazelak lost the starting job at the tail end of the 2021 season at Missouri and threw 17 interceptions in his last 21 games, but his 66.3 completion percentage and SEC Co-Freshman of the Year Honors in 2020 lead me to believe he has to be a step up from Tuttle.
But no matter who's under center for the first snap, they'll need far better protection from the offensive line than last year. Indiana lost two starters and returns three linemen with significant experience, and the sentiment from camp is there's been steady improvement and greater accountability from this group.
Indiana is hoping steady internal development will lead to a stronger push up front, because Division II West Texas A&M transfer Parker Hanna is the only non-freshman newcomer in that room. We'll see on game day if anything has truly changed.
With so much personnel turnover and a new offensive coordinator, Indiana's offense seems to be in better shape in the long term, but playing as a cohesive unit in game one on Friday is another story. On the other hand, Illinois has a game under its belt, and multiple coaches on both sides noted that the most improvement is seen from Week 1 to Week 2 – advantage Illini.
Illinois Fighting Illini running back Chase Brown (2) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the first half against Wyoming at Memorial Stadium.
Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
My prediction
Indiana's defense will give the Hoosiers a chance deep into fourth quarter. They won't be able to completely stop Chase Brown, but Cam Jones and company will do enough to force Illinois into uncomfortable passing situations. The Illini won't manhandle Indiana up front like they did Wyoming, and the Hoosiers will challenge Tommy DeVito to make difficult throws.
I see a slow start for Indiana, offensively, as it works through the growing pains of a new system with new players. The Hoosiers were one of the worst red-zone offenses in 2021, and I think a few missed chances on Friday leads to settling for field goals that could cost them the game. And whether it's Bazelak or Tuttle, one will have to lead a late scoring drive.
With so much change from last season, my thoughts on the team could be completely different after tonight.
But for now, I think this one goes Illinois 23, Indiana 20.
Related stories on Indiana football:
- HOW TO WATCH: Indiana opens the 2022 season at home against Illinois on Friday at 8 p.m. ET. The Illini enter the game with momentum coming off a 38-6 win over Wyoming in Week 0, and the Hoosiers are hoping to bounce back from a disastrous 2-10 season in 2021 with wholesale personnel and coaching changes. Here's how to watch, with game time and TV information, the latest on the point spread and three things to see from Indiana. CLICK HERE
- TOM ALLEN PREVIEWS 2022 SEASON: Indiana football coach Tom Allen had his weekly show 'Inside Indiana Football' with Don Fischer at Southern Stone restaurant on Wednesday to preview the 2022 season, which begins on Friday at 8 p.m. ET against Illinois. CLICK HERE
- INDIANA'S APPROACH TO CHASE BROWN: Illinois running back Chase Brown posted over 150 yards from scrimmage with three touchdowns against Wyoming in Week 0 after a 1,000-yard rushing season in 2021. Indiana linebacker and team captain Cam Jones said all 11 defenders will need to swarm to the ball. CLICK HERE
- BIELEMA TALKS INDIANA MATCHUP: Illinois defeated Wyoming 38-6 in Week 0, and now the Illini will begin Big Ten play on the road at Indiana on Friday night. Here's what coach Bret Bielema said about the Hoosiers. CLICK HERE
