CFP National Championship Point Spread Favors Indiana Over Miami

Indiana is one step away from completing the first 16-0 season in FBS history, and oddsmakers like the Hoosiers to get the job done.

Ahead of the College Football Playoff National Championship, Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite over Miami (FL), and the over/under is 48.5 points, according to the DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday morning. The Hoosiers' moneyline odds are -325, while the Hurricanes are +260 underdogs on the moneyline.

The game will take place Monday, Jan. 19 at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla., which is coincidentally Miami's home stadium. Here's a closer look at how each team has fared against the spread this season.

Indiana Football — Indiana Hoosiers linebacker Aiden Fisher (4) raises the Peach Bowl trophy with quarterback Fernando Mendoza (15), wide receiver Elijah Sarratt (13) and defensive lineman Daniel Ndukwe (17) after defeating the Oregon Ducks at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Indiana's results against the point spread in 2025-26

Aug. 30: No. 20 Indiana defeated Old Dominion 27-14 at home as a 23.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (41) went under the 53.5-point line. Record: 1-0
Sept. 6: No. 23 Indiana defeated Kennesaw State 56-9 at home as a 35.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (65) went over the 51.5-point line. Record: 2-0
Sept. 12: No. 22 Indiana defeated Indiana State 73-0 at home as a 46.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (73) went over the 60.5-point line. Record: 3-0
Sept. 20: No. 19 Indiana defeated No. 9 Illinois 63-10 at home as a seven-point favorite (covered). The point total (73) went over the 51.5 point line. Record: 4-0
Sept. 27: No. 11 Indiana defeated Iowa 20-15 on the road as a 9.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (35) went under the 47.5-point line. Record: 5-0
Oct. 11: No. 7 Indiana defeated No. 3 Oregon 30-20 on the road as a 6.5-point underdog (covered). The point total (50) went under the 51.5-point line. Record: 6-0
Oct. 18: No. 3 Indiana defeated Michigan State 38-13 at home as a 26.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (51) went over the 48.5-point line. Record: 7-0
Oct. 25: No. 2 Indiana defeated UCLA 56-6 at home as a 26.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (62) went over the 53.5-point line. Record: 8-0
Nov. 1: No. 2 Indiana defeated Maryland 55-10 on the road as a 21.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (65) went over the 51.5-point line. Record: 9-0.
Nov. 8: No. 2 Indiana defeated Penn State 27-24 on the road as a 13.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (51) went over the 50.5-point line. Record: 10-0
Nov. 15: No. 2 Indiana defeated Wisconsin 31-7 at home as a 28.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (38) went under the 43.5-point line. Record: 11-0.
Nov. 28: No. 2 Indiana defeated Purdue 56-3 on the road as a 28.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (59) went over the 54.5-point line. Record: 12-0
Dec. 6: No. 2 Indiana defeated No. 1 Ohio State 13-10 in the Big Ten Championship as a 3.5-point underdog (covered). The point total (23) went under the 45.5-point line. Record: 13-0
Jan. 1: No. 1 Indiana defeated No. 9 Alabama 38-3 in the CFP quarterfinals at the Rose Bowl as a 7.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (41) went under the 46.5-point line. Record: 14-0
Jan. 9: No. 1 Indiana defeated No. 5 Oregon 56-22 in the CFP semifinals at the Peach Bowl as a 3-point favorite (covered). The point total (78) went over the 49.5-point line. Record: 15-0

Indiana improved to 10-5 against the spread with Friday's dominant 56-22 win over the Ducks. Cornerback D'Angelo Ponds returned a Dante Moore interception for a touchdown on Oregon's first offensive play, and the Hoosiers rode that momentum to a 28-point halftime lead.

It was another efficient night for Heisman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza, who completed 17-of-20 passes for 177 yards and five touchdowns. Despite being outgained by Oregon by 16 yards, Indiana won the turnover battle 3-0 and stopped the Ducks twice on fourth down.

That sets up a national title game against No. 10 Miami, which has defeated No. 7 Texas A&M, No. 2 Ohio State and No. 6 Ole Miss by an average of seven points during the playoffs. The Hurricanes began the year with a crucial 27-42 home win over No. 6 Notre Dame before falling to unranked Louisville and SMU near the midway point of the season.

The strength of fourth-year coach Mario Cristobal's group is on the defensive line, which leads the nation with 47 sacks and ranks fifth in scoring defense. Veteran quarterback Carson Beck ranks 12th in quarterback rating, while running back Mark Fletcher Jr. and wide receiver Malachi Toney have each totaled over 1,000 yards on the season.

Carson Beck Miami Football — Miami Hurricanes quarterback Carson Beck (11) celebrates a 2026 Fiesta Bowl victory over Ole Miss at State Farm Stadium. | Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images

Miami's results against the point spread in 2025-26

Aug. 31: No. 10 Miami defeated No. 6 Notre Dame 27-24 at home as a 3-point underdog (covered). The point total (51) went over the 50.5-point line. Record: 1-0
Sept. 6: No. 5 Miami defeated Bethune-Cookman 45-3 at home as a 54.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (48) went under the 64.5-point line. Record: 2-0
Sept. 13: No. 5 Miami defeated No. 18 USF 49-12 at home as a 17.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (61) went over the 56.5-point line. Record: 3-0
Sept. 20: No. 4 Miami defeated Florida 26-7 at home as an 8.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (33) went under the 51.5-point line. Record: 4-0
Oct. 4: No. 3 Miami defeated No. 18 Florida State on the road as a 3.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (50) went under the 54.5-point line. Record: 5-0
Oct. 17: No. 2 Miami lost 24-21 to Louisville at home as a 10.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (45) went under the 49.5-point line. Record: 5-1
Oct. 25: No. 9 Miami defeated Stanford 42-7 at home as a 29.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (49) went over the 46.5-point line. Record: 6-1
Nov. 1: No. 10 Miami lost 26-20 at SMU as an 8.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (46) went under the 50.5-point line. Record: 6-2
Nov. 8: No. 18 Miami defeated Syracuse 38-10 at home as a 28.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (48) went over the 46.5-point line. Record: 7-2
Nov. 15: No. 15 Miami defeated NC State 41-7 at home as a 16.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (48) went under the 54.5-point line. Record: 8-2
Nov. 22: No. 13 Miami defeated Virginia Tech 34-17 on the road as a 17.5-point favorite (did not cover). The point total (51) went over the 49.5-point line. Record: 9-2
Nov. 29: No. 12 Miami defeated Pittsburgh 38-7 on the road as a 6.5-point favorite (covered). The point total (45) went under the 48.5-point line. Record: 10-2
Dec. 20: No. 10 Miami defeated No. 7 Texas A&M 10-3 on the road in the CFP first round as a 3-point underdog (covered). The point total (13) went under the 48.5-point line. Record: 11-2
Dec. 31: No. 10 Miami defeated No. 2 Ohio State 24-14 in the CFP quarterfinals at the Cotton Bowl as a 7.5-point underdog (covered). The point total (38) went under the 39.5-point line. Record: 12-2
Jan. 8: No. 10 Miami defeated No. 6 Ole Miss 31-27 in the CFP semifinals at the Fiesta Bowl as a 3-point favorite (covered). The point total (58) went over the 52.5-point line. Record: 13-2

Like Indiana, Miami improved to 10-5 against the spread after defeating Ole Miss in the semifinals, the fourth straight game in which they covered the spread. The point total has gone under in nine of the Hurricanes' 15 games this season, including three straight games prior to their win over the Rebels.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Indiana Football Nabs FCS Freshman All-American CB in Transfer Portal

Adidas Roasts Nike After Indiana’s Peach Bowl Rout of Oregon

Indiana is Mistake-Free and College Football's Best Team. Curt Cignetti's Standard is Why.

3 Takeaways from Indiana Basketball's 83-77 Loss vs Nebraska