Game Day Prediction, 3 Keys For Indiana Against Michigan
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – There's no time to ease back into action after a bye week, as Indiana travels to No. 2 Michigan for a Noon ET kickoff on Saturday.
Indiana coach Tom Allen used the bye week to make a coaching change, firing offensive coordinator Walt Bell and promoting Rod Carey from his quality control role. Carey and freshman quarterback Tayven Jackson have a massive challenge on their hands against a Michigan defense allowing just 6.7 points per game.
Coach Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines have dominated every opponent this year, winning their first six games by an average of 30.6 points. Oddsmakers are predicting a similar margin, as Michigan continues its pursuit of a third consecutive College Football Playoff.
Here are three keys to the game for Indiana, plus a score prediction.
Let it fly
Indiana has one of the worst run games in the FBS, especially in goal-line and short-yardage situations. Other than possibly Ohio State in Week 1, Michigan has the best defensive front Indiana has faced this season, so don't expect running the ball to get any easier this week. Bell's efforts to run triple-option plays didn't work either, and it wouldn't be surprising to see Indiana ditch that altogether with Carey.
If the Hoosiers have any chance to compete with Michigan, it must create explosive plays through the air with receivers like Cam Camper, Donaven McCulley and Jaylin Lucas. Quarterback Tayven Jackson has shown flashes of being a good downfield passer early on, but he took a step back against Akron and Maryland. Indiana won't be able to run the ball consistently enough to wear down Michigan, so why not be aggressive in the pass game?
Limit the run
Like all Harbaugh-coached teams in recent years, Michigan has a devastating run game. It starts up front with a unit that's won the Joe Moore Award the last two years, given to the nation's best offensive line. Michigan hasn't been quite as dominant running the ball as last season, with its rushing yards per game dropping from 238.9 to 185.2, but it's still a focal point of an offense averaging 37.3 points per game.
Running back Blake Corum has a good chance to post another 1,000 yard rushing season, as he's averaging 6.0 yards per carry. Second-string back Donovan Edwards has taken a step back from the 991 rushing yards he logged last year, but he remains a big-run threat. Stopping Michigan's offense is close to impossible, but limiting the run game is the first step.
Special plays from special teams
Upsetting the No. 2 team in the nation as a 33-point underdog typically requires touchdowns in rare forms. For Indiana, the best chance to do that is in the kick and punt return game with Jaylin Lucas. The reigning first-team All-American return specialist doesn't have a return touchdown this year yet, but he's set up the Hoosiers with optimal field position a number of times. To stun the Wolverines, Lucas needs to take one to the house.
Score prediction
Michigan 49, Indiana 10
Michigan is a legitimate national title contender, and Indiana was a missed 32-yard field goal away from losing to a 1-5 Akron team. It's really that simple. It's hard to expect many immediate and significant improvements from the offense after a coaching change and bye week, especially when its first test is a Michigan defense that's allowing an FBS-low 6.7 points per game. Indiana gave up numerous explosive plays against Maryland, and its defense has consistently struggled against mobile quarterbacks like J.J. McCarthy in recent years. This one looks like a mismatch in every sense.
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