Indiana Canceling Louisville Series a Smart Proposal Despite Complaints
BLOOMINGTON, Ind. – When reports surfaced that Indiana is making efforts to cancel its football series against Louisville, Hoosier and Cardinal fans alike opened fire at the program.
Gutless, soft, cowardly, scared, embarrassing – that was the overwhelming social media reaction. While it may be bad optics to cancel the game, it's a smart decision for Indiana.
For a program whose schedule annually ranks among the nation's most difficult, facing high-major opponents in nonconference play is an unnecessary challenge that can inflict damage to bowl hopes. Sure, fan excitement would grow with a recognizable nonconference opponent, like it did when Indiana sold out Memorial Stadium in 2021 against Cincinnati. But Big Ten teams already play more conference games, nine, than SEC and ACC teams, which play eight. The high-profile conference matchups exist as much, or more, as anywhere. Add the Big Ten’s new TV deal, and the financial argument doesn’t carry weight, either.
And let's face it. Indiana football's benchmark for success is bowl eligibility. There's no need to make that goal more challenging than it already is.
The cancellation isn't official just yet, but it's trended that way for months. Rick Bozich of WDRB.com reported on Jan. 7, 2023, that an Indiana administrator called Louisville to discuss canceling the series. At the time, Indiana at least wondered if it could cancel the series entirely, but the conversation seems to have narrowed.
According to a report on Aug. 10 from Michael Niziolek of the Bloomington Herald-Times, the schools are in negotiations to cancel the 2025 game at Memorial Stadium. Nothing has been finalized, but it would be a mutual agreement between Indiana and Louisville, with no financial or contractual obligations to either party for the series' third leg in 2025.
The schools will still play the 2023 matchup, scheduled for Noon ET on Sept. 16 inside Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with revenue split evenly after all expenses are paid. The 2024 game is slated for Sept. 7 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky.
Indiana and Louisville agreed to the three-game series in 2015, when the Big Ten played just eight conference games. That increased to nine in 2016, and throughout Tom Allen's entire tenure, beginning with his first full season in 2017, Indiana's schedule has often stacked up with the best. It ranks 10th the nation in ESPN's strength of schedule metric in 2023. In preceding years, it ranked 22nd, 7th, 25th, 58th, 15th and 59th nationally.
But for at least two more years, the Hoosiers' schedule will feature 10 high-major opponents.
If Indiana is able to nix the 2025 Louisville game, it would likely fill the last nonconference slot with a home game, in addition to set matchups against Indiana State and Old Dominion. Looking ahead, Indiana is scheduled to play Colorado State, Ball State and UConn in 2026, followed by Virginia and Indiana State in 2027, Virginia and Eastern Michigan in 2028, Western Kentucky in 2029, and a two-year home-and-home series with Notre Dame beginning in 2030.
The recent home-and-home series against Cincinnati illustrates the potential negative outcome Indiana should seek to avoid at all costs. Indiana entered the 2021 season ranked No. 17 in the nation but faced two top-20 teams in the first three weeks, No. 18 Iowa and No. 8 Cincinnati. The latter was avoidable, and while Cincinnati isn't technically a Power 5 team until it joins the Big 12 in 2023, they won at least nine games in 10 seasons from 2007-20. Indiana lost both games in this series, and the 2021 matchup stalled momentum and belief the Hoosiers worked so hard to build in 2019 and 2020.
Indiana's Head Coach Tom Allen during the Indiana versus Michigan football game at Memorial Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022.
Rich Janzaruk/Herald-Times / USA TODAY NETWORK
So is there any benefit to Indiana playing Louisville, or any high-major opponent for that matter, in nonconference play?
From a financial standpoint, scheduling high-major nonconference opponents isn't enough of a windfall to be the deciding factor. With a seven-year, $8 billion television deal with CBS, NBC and Fox starting in 2023, the Big Ten will rake in more money than any conference. It will also reach television free agency, if you will, four years earlier than the SEC, making way for, in all likelihood, an even larger deal.
Playing a team like Louisville offers no significant boost from a recruiting perspective, either. Current players often say they chose Indiana out of high school or the transfer portal because of the potential for national exposure. A highlight-reel play against Ohio State, Michigan or Penn State can go a long way for their careers. Those opportunities will still be there, even if the nonconference slate is softened.
If you're still calling Indiana cowards for wanting out of this series, look at the reigning Big Ten champions' schedule. Michigan played Colorado State, Hawaii and UConn last year – teams that went a combined 12-26 in 2022 – and the Wolverines host East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green in 2023.
Until Indiana regularly appears in bowl games, it should not be making the road to success even more difficult. The Big Ten is rough enough, and there is no up side to playing nonconference opponents like Louisville where the potential for losing is as high as winning.
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