2 Factors That Will Determine if Iowa State Makes Final Four

There are two key factors that will determine how deep the Iowa State Cyclones go in the NCAA tournament.

Mar 20, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger looks on against the Tennessee State Tigers during the first half of a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones were one of the best men’s basketball teams in the country all season and have continued showcasing why during the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

In their Round of 64 game against the Tennessee State Tigers, the Cyclones set a program record with 108 points in a 34-point win. Against the Kentucky Wildcats in the Round of 32, another blowout occurred with an 82-63 victory.

That has set them up for a matchup with another SEC foe in the Sweet 16: the Tennessee Volunteers, the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region.

What will it take for Iowa State to not only defeat the Volunteers but also advance to the Final Four from the Midwest Region? In the opinion of Jay Bilas of ESPN, there are two main factors: controlling pace and the health of their star, Joshua Jefferson.

Two factors that will determine Iowa State's NCAA tournament fate

Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) drives to the basket around Texas Tech Red Raiders forward LeJuan Watts (3) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

“The Cyclones dictate the action on the defensive end -- and if Joshua Jefferson is healthy,” Bilas wrote.

Iowa State comes into every matchup with a game plan and sticks to it. Trusting the process is exactly what T.J. Otzelberger and his team did against Kentucky despite going down by 12 points early in the first half.

Their confidence didn’t waver, relying on their defense to keep them afloat until the offense got going. By the end of the half, the Cyclones were ahead by one and in the midst of what would eventually be a game-changing 11-0 run.

Iowa State forced 20 turnovers by the Wildcats, relentlessly pressuring a team that was without a traditional point guard. It helped turn the tide of the game, and that effort will be brought every time they step on the court.

Turning Defense into Offense#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/1PH4BTPbcV

— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) March 25, 2026

However, their ceiling is certainly lower without Jefferson in the lineup. Players have stepped up in his absence, but their path to the Final Four is incredibly difficult if they are without him for several reasons, one of them being size.

Without him, Iowa State has only three players in their rotation who are 6-foot-8 or taller. One of them is Milan Momcilovic, who isn’t making much of an impact on the interior, where Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta are doing all the heavy lifting.

Jefferson is a versatile forward who gets the job done on both ends of the floor. Replacing him with a single player is an impossibility; it has required a full team effort, which has been provided, with Nate Heise stepping up in a big way.

Otzelberger has made incredible adjustments without his star forward, but it is fair to wonder how much longer that can continue, especially as competition gets tougher.