3 Major Reasons Iowa State Will Not Win Big 12 Tournament

The Iowa State Cyclones ended their 2025-26 regular season on a high note, defeating the Arizona State Sun Devils 86-65 to win their 25th game of the season.

Now, they are turning their attention to postseason play that starts with the 2026 Phillips 66 Big 12 Men’s Basketball Tournament being held in Kansas City, Missouri. The Cyclones are the No. 5 seed, which meant they just missed out on the coveted double-bye into the quarterfinals.

Alas, a fifth-place finish gives Iowa State a bye into the second round. It wouldn’t be unprecedented for them to make a run, but there will be plenty of challenges that lie ahead for T.J. Otzelberger and his squad.

Here are three reasons why the Cyclones will come short in their quest for a Big 12 tournament championship.

Offense Trending Wrong Direction

Iowa State Cyclones forward Killyan Toure being defended by Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings. — Iowa State Cyclones forward Killyan Toure (27) passes the ball between Houston Cougars guard Kingston Flemings (4) and Houston Cougars forward Joseph Tugler (11) during the first half in the3 Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Since the Otzelberger era began in 2021, Iowa State has been known for its incredible defensive performances. They stifle opponents on that end of the court, but have struggled at times to score.

This season, that looked to change. Offense was a strength for the team out of the gate, but things have been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks. Their efficiency has waned, with Joshua Jefferson drawing the ire of some fans.

He is far from the only reason the Cyclones’ offense is trending in the wrong direction. Opponents are now daring freshman Killyan Toure to shoot, and he is failing to step up.

Going up against familiar foes in rematches will not make things any easier for Iowa State.

Struggles Away From Hilton Coliseum

Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger looking on. — Feb 10, 2026; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger looks on from the bench against the TCU Horned Frogs during the first half at Ed and Rae Schollmaier Arena. | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

The Cyclones have been dominant throughout the campaign when playing at the friendly confines of Hilton Coliseum. They lost only one game in Ames this season, to the Texas Tech Red Raiders, as Hilton Magic was real.

However, they struggled at times, especially during Big 12 play, away from home. Five of their six losses this season were on the road, and it feels like an eternity ago that they picked up arguably their best win of the season against the then No. 1-ranked Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana, at Mackey Arena.

Can they find a way to replicate the level of success they found earlier in the season on the road to advance in the Big 12 tournament?

Wrong Side of Bracket

Mar 2, 2026; Tucson, Arizona, USA; Arizona Wildcats head coach Tommy Lloyd cuts down the net after they defeat the Iowa State Cyclones at McKale Memorial Center. | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

The biggest obstacle that Iowa State will face is the schedule. Because of tiebreakers, they got the short end of the stick when it came to seeding.

Not only did they miss out on the double-bye as the No. 5 seed, but they are now stuck on the side of the bracket against the two teams against which they arguably had their worst performances of the season when facing: Texas Tech and the Arizona Wildcats.

The Red Raiders are the only visitors to win at Hilton Coliseum. Arizona has proven time and time again to be one of the best teams in the nation.

Having to face off against both of them before even getting to the championship game is a brutal road for the Cyclones.