Bold Predictions for Iowa State Cyclones Against Arizona Wildcats on Big Monday

The Iowa State Cyclones suffered a tough loss in their last game against the Texas Tech Red Raiders, losing for the first time this season at Hilton Coliseum, 82-73.

They won’t have much time to overcome that loss, now heading on the road for another difficult matchup in Tucson against the Arizona Wildcats. This is a major matchup for the Cyclones, who are running out of opportunities to make a run at a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.

If they want to make program history and earn a top seed for the first time, this is a must-win game against Arizona. Easier said than done, of course, against a team that has only suffered two losses this season.

Will Iowa State be able to pull off the upset? Here are some bold predictions for the matchup.

Killyan Toure Responds to Adversity

Iowa State Cyclones guard Killyan Toure taking jump shot. — Feb 28, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Killyan Toure (27) shoots against the Texas Tech Red Raiders during the first half at James H. Hilton Coliseum. | Reese Strickland-Imagn Images

Texas Tech had a unique defensive game plan. They paid no attention to Killyan Toure on the offensive end, daring him to shoot the ball. It was a strategy that worked, with the freshman guard going zero for seven from the field, which includes four 3-point attempts.

He can expect that kind of treatment from opponents going forward. How will he respond? Against the Wildcats, he will step up with the pressure rising.

Toure will knock down at least two 3-pointers, leading to T.J. Otzelberger playing him more against Arizona. He will get back over the 20-minute threshold for minutes played, something he has not done in the last two games.

Arizona Duo Overwhelms Interior

Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka reacting after play. — Feb 21, 2026; Houston, Texas, USA; Arizona Wildcats forward Tobe Awaka (30) reacts while playing against the Houston Cougars in the first half at Fertitta Center. | Thomas Shea-Imagn Images

Iowa State got beaten at its own game a bit by the Red Raiders, who were aggressive on the boards. Against Arizona, the Cyclones are going to be at a size disadvantage on the interior, going against Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka.

It will require a complete team effort on the glass, but slowing down that bruising duo is going to prove too much to handle. They are going to combine to score at least 25 points in the game and pull down at least 20 rebounds.

Blake Buchanan has been playing well recently, but this is a tough matchup for freshman Dominykas Pleta behind him. Both play with energy and effort, but it will take more than that to combat the experience and physicality of Krivas and Awaka.

Joshua Jefferson Proves Big 12 Player of the Year Worth

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson warming up. — Feb 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) warms up before the game against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

If Iowa State is going to have any shot at winning this game, its stars need to come to play. Joshua Jefferson is putting up numbers that no other player in the country is achieving, and he will prove why he is the favorite for the Big 12 Player of the Year Award.

He is going to need to have a monster game to keep the Cyclones in it, and that is exactly what he will provide. His efficiency has been down recently, failing to make at least 50% of his shots in six consecutive games.

That streak will be snapped against the Wildcats. Jefferson will shoot nine of 17 from the field, scoring 24 points with 11 rebounds and six assists in a stellar all-around game from the future Big 12 POY.

Iowa State Defeated Again on Road

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger looking on. — Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches the game from the bench during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball against Texas Tech on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Will that stellar performance from Jefferson and a bounce back from Toure be enough to get Iowa State over the hump? Ultimately, it will not be.

The Cyclones have struggled on the road during Big 12 competition, and those issues will rear their ugly head once again. Arizona comes into the game playing some excellent basketball and will cement its status as the No. 1 team in the league heading into the conference tournament.

Iowa State will lose 86-79, dropping to 24-6 on the season and 11-6 during conference play.