Bold Predictions for Iowa State Cyclones Big 12 Matchup With Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Iowa State Cyclones got things back on track earlier this week, defeating the Utah Utes in Salt Lake City, 75-59, for their 24th victory of the season.

That was their first game against an unranked opponent since Feb. 10, when they were on the road and lost to the TCU Horned Frogs. Competition is about to pick up again with the Texas Tech Red Raiders heading into Hilton Coliseum.

Winners of two in a row and five out of their last six, the Red Raiders have some positive momentum heading into the matchup that the Cyclones will be looking to cool off. With both teams part of a four-way tie with an 11-4 record in Big 12 play, this will have major implications on conference tournament seeding.

How will things turn out in Ames this afternoon? Here are some bold predictions for the game.

3-Point Extravaganza

Texas Tech's Donovan Atwell shooting 3-pointer. — Texas Tech's Donovan Atwell attempts a 3-pointer against Houston during a Big 12 Conference men's basketball game, Saturday, Jan. 24, 2026, in United Supermarkets Arena. | Nathan Giese/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa State and Texas Tech are both prolific 3-point shooting teams. They rank second and first, respectively, during Big 12 play, making 37.8% and 40.9% of their attempts. The two schools are also second and first in 3-pointers made per game.

Leading the way are two of the best shooters in the country: Milan Momcilovic for the Cyclones and Donovan Atwell for the Red Raiders.

Momcilovic has already set the Iowa State single-season record with 104 3-point makes and counting, connecting on a men’s basketball leading 50.7% of his attempts. Atwell has also made 104 attempts at a 45.6% clip.

Today, their shooting will be on full display. They will combine for at least 10 3-pointers made between the two of them in what could be a sneaky high-scoring affair.

Cyclones Turn Up Defensive Pressure Causing Turnovers

Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown defended by Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey and forward Blake Buchanan — Feb 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Utah Utes guard Terrence Brown (middle) looks to pass against Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (left) and forward Blake Buchanan (right) during the first half at Jon M. Huntsman Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

Throughout the season, Texas Tech has been great at protecting the ball. They are averaging only 10.6 turnovers per game, which is 87th in the nation. Their 16.0% turnover rate is below the average of 16.9%.

However, life has gotten more difficult for the Red Raiders with their star, JT Toppin, sidelined by an ACL tear. Without a trusted superstar and go-to player offensively to count on, the Cyclones will take full advantage.

Toppin isn’t a point guard, but it will be much easier for T.J. Otzelberger’s squad to ramp up the pressure on other players knowing he won’t be there to hurt them. Iowa State has excelled at turning opponents over all season, and it will occur again, causing at least 15 by Texas Tech.

Iowa State takes advantage of injured Texas Tech

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger calling play. — Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger calls a play against Houston during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Red Raiders deserve a lot of credit for how they have responded to Toppin’s injury thus far. They lost in Tempe to the Arizona Sun Devils in the game he got hurt in, but have won two games in a row against the Kansas State Wildcats and Cincinnati Bearcats.

The Cyclones are a massive step up in competition compared to those two teams. Also, Texas Tech had the luxury of being at home in Lubbock for those contests. They are now heading into a raucous environment in Ames at Hilton Coliseum, and it will prove too much to overcome.

Iowa State will keep its winning streak alive at home against top-16-ranked teams under Otzelberger, winning 83-71.