Iowa State Basketball Receives Shocking KenPom Projection

The Iowa State Cyclones have been one of the most consistently productive teams in men’s college basketball under head coach T.J. Otzelberger.

Since he took over a team that went 2-22, the Cyclones have qualified for the NCAA tournament in all five seasons he has been at the helm. He has done a wonderful job of bringing in talent that fits his style of play, building a rock-solid floor for the program to build upon.

Heading into the 2026-27 season, there were some questions about just how good Iowa State would be. There was a lot of production and leadership that had to be replaced, with Tamin Lipsey, Joshua Jefferson, Milan Momcilovic and Nate Heise all moving on from the program. Also, emerging star Killyan Toure suffered a shoulder injury that will keep him out until mid-January.

However, Lipsey is back for a fifth year, which has changed the team’s trajectory in a major way. So much so that the Cyclones are projected to be one of the best teams in the country according to KenPom.

Where did Iowa State land in KenPom preseason rankings?

Iowa State men’s basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger speaks with the media. — Iowa State men’s basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger speaks with the media during the university’s men’s basketball media day at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. (Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune, USA TODAY Network) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The preseason projections have been revealed by KenPom, and Iowa State comes in at No. 6 with a Net Rating of +28.68. Even more surprising than being ranked that high is that it puts them in only third in the Big 12.

The Houston Cougars and Arizona Wildcats are both ahead of the Cyclones in the KenPom projections with Net Ratings of +31.66 and +29.73, coming in at Nos. 3 and 5. Otherwise, it is only the Duke Blue Devils (+34.42), Florida Gators (+33.38) and Illinois Fighting Illini (+29.86) that are ahead of Iowa State.

The Cyclones are projected to have the No. 2-ranked defense in the country with a rating of 90.2. Only Houston, with a Defensive Rating of 87.6, is better. Iowa State’s offense is ranked No. 23 with a rating of 118.8.

Lipsey coming back for a fifth season has certainly helped bolster those projections. One of the best two-way point guards in the country last season, he provides leadership and production on both ends.

His return will help compensate for the loss of Toure, who is going to miss more than half the season recovering from his shoulder injury. Otzelberger also did very well in the transfer portal, bringing in guys to fill specific roles and needs.

🔊Mic'd Up‼️

Take in a practice with Allan Hanson on the mic.#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/wdBq0YdL3b
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) October 8, 2026

Jaquan Johnson, the reigning Missouri Valley Conference Defensive Player of the Year, will be an asset in the backcourt. Tre Singleton is going to help replace Jefferson at power forward.

Taj Manning brings toughness and rebounding to the frontcourt. Ryan Prather Jr. is a steady ball-handler with scoring upside as a potential sixth man. Leon Bond III will fill Heise’s role as a versatile two-way wing.

With Lipsey, Jamarion Bateman, Blake Buchanan and Dominykas Pleta coming back, and eventually Toure, there is enough continuity to help assimilate the new guys into the program with relative ease.

This is a deep and talented team that can match up with opponents of any playing style, raising their potential for a lengthy run in March.

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