Iowa State Basketball vs Tennessee Sweet 16 Bold Predictions

The Iowa State Cyclones have passed every test they have faced thus far in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

Despite having their star Joshua Jefferson for less than three minutes, they defeated the Tennessee State Tigers in the Round of 64. Without him for their Round of 32 game against the Kentucky Wildcats, the Cyclones started slow but won going away.

That has set them up for a Sweet 16 matchup against the Tennessee Volunteers, the No. 6 seed in the Midwest Region. This is the final game of the round, as the Elite Eight will be set when the final buzzer goes off.

Who will come out victorious? Here are four bold predictions for the Sweet 16 matchup.

Joshua Jefferson Starts For Iowa State

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson holding ball at warmups during practice. — Mar 26, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) warms up during a practice session ahead of the midwest regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at United Center. | David Banks-Imagn Images

The single biggest storyline heading into the game is whether Jefferson will suit up or not. He has admitted that he hasn’t logged any practice time since injuring his ankle a week ago, but is working tirelessly to be healthy enough to play.

While he will still be hampered by the injury, the star forward will be in the starting five for Iowa State. He will provide the team with a spark of energy out of the gate, playing until the first TV timeout at the under-16 mark and then taking a seat on the bench.

He will make two baskets and grab two rebounds, handing out an assist, but that will be the end of his evening. Jefferson will log four minutes of action before giving way to his teammates.

Cyclones Keep Rebounding Margin Respectable

Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan battling for rebounding with two Texas Tech Red Raiders players. — Mar 12, 2026; Kansas City, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Blake Buchanan (23) goes after a rebound with Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Jaylen Petty (11) and Texas Tech Red Raiders guard Christian Anderson (4) during the second half at T-Mobile Center. | William Purnell-Imagn Images

Iowa State will face the biggest disadvantage on the interior, especially if Jefferson cannot play. The Cyclones already aren’t the biggest team; not having him at full strength will make that gap even larger.

The Volunteers have a clear size advantage with Felix Okpara, Nate Ament, J.P. Estrella and Jaylen Carey rotating in the frontcourt. They have dominated opponents on the boards, owning the second-best rebounding margin in the country.

Tennessee will outrebound Iowa State, but won’t reach its average. Instead, the Cyclones will keep it respectable on the boards, sticking within eight total rebounds of the Volunteers.

Point Guards Shine

Tennessee Volunteers guard Ja'kobi Gillespie looks on holding ball. — Mar 20, 2026; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Tennessee Volunteers guard Ja'kobi Gillespie (0) looks on during the second half against the Miami (OH) RedHawks during a first round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Xfinity Mobile Arena. | Bill Streicher-Imagn Images

At this point in the season, guard play can determine how much success a team has. Iowa State and Tennessee both have incredible point guards leading the way who will put their skills on full display in the Sweet 16.

Tamin Lipsey and Ja’Kobi Gillespie will combine for at least 50 points scored and 15 assists handed out. They will knock down at least six 3-pointers between them, trading blows like a heavyweight prize fight in boxing.

Where Lipsey will create an edge is in turnovers. He will have only two in the game, while Gillespie is forced into four.

Iowa State Survives to Advance

Iowa State Cyclones guards Dominick Nelson and Tamin Lipsey celebrate. — Mar 22, 2026; St. Louis, MO, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Dominick Nelson (11) and Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) celebrate after a play during the first half against the Kentucky Wildcats during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Enterprise Center. | Jeff Le-Imagn Images

The Cyclones should have confidence knowing they can compete and execute at a high level even without Jefferson in the lineup. The Volunteers play a similar style to them with physical defense and timely offense.

If there is anyone who knows how to combat that style of play, it is Iowa State, which practices against it on a daily basis. Even without Jefferson close to being 100 percent, they will find a way to get the job done.

The Cyclones will win 68-64 and advance to the Elite Eight, where they will face the winner of the game between the Michigan Wolverines and Alabama Crimson Tide.