Iowa State Cyclones Fall Short in Surprising Stat to Being National Title Contender

The Iowa State Cyclones men’s basketball team certainly looks the part as one of the best squads in the country.

They are 24-4 on the season and currently sit at No. 4 in the AP Poll. Bracketology predictions have them right in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, something that has never been achieved in program history.

Unless something catastrophic occurs to change their outlook, such as unexpected defeats, the Cyclones look to be, at worst, a No. 2 seed in the tournament. While certainly an impressive feat, does that automatically make them a national championship contender?

Based on historical data from KenPom, shared by James Fletcher III on On3, Iowa State just misses out on the average of the last five champions in terms of offensive rating and defensive rating.

Iowa State falls just short of championship averages

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger looking on. — Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches the game from the beach against Houston during the second half in the Big-12 men’s basketball at Hilton Coliseum on Feb. 16, 2026, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The only teams that meet the championship average of a 124.1 offensive rating or higher and 91.3 defensive rating or lower are the Michigan Wolverines, Arizona Wildcats and Duke Blue Devils.

Somewhat shockingly, the Cyclones did meet the criteria for one of the ratings, but not the one many people would guess. It isn’t their defense that is championship caliber this season; instead, it is their offense.

Iowa State has an offensive rating through its first 28 games of 124.3, which ranks 18th in the country. Their defensive rating, while still incredibly strong at 92.9 and seventh in the nation, fell just short of the threshold.

15 total teams met the average for offensive rating, but zero others met the defensive rating average.

Deep tournament run certainly possible for Cyclones

Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson warming up. — Feb 24, 2026; Salt Lake City, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Joshua Jefferson (5) warms up before the game against the Utah Utes at Jon M. Huntsman Center. | Rob Gray-Imagn Images

However, the Cyclones do meet the criteria of a Final Four team. The averages for teams reaching this part of the tournament since 2021 have an offensive rating of 121.3 or higher and a defensive rating of 93.3 or lower.

Iowa State is joined by the Houston Cougars and Florida Gators as teams meeting the Final Four thresholds on both ends of the court.

21 different schools have the offensive production to meet the Final Four average from the last five tournaments, but only one team meets the defensive numbers: the Michigan State Spartans.

Michigan State hits the Elite Eight averages, along with the Nebraska Cornhuskers and UConn Huskies.

As the old saying goes, defense wins championships, and that rings truest when taking a look at title contenders. During T.J. Otzelberger's tenure as head coach of the Cyclones, they have been incredibly productive defensively. Now they have a championship-worthy offense to match, making them an even more dangerous squad.