Iowa State Cyclones in Tough Spot in Latest Bracketology Predictions

The Iowa State Cyclones are one of a handful of teams that are in the mix for a No. 1 seed in the 2026 NCAA Tournament.

In the first Top 16 preview shared, the Cyclones were the fourth No. 1 seed, along with the Duke Blue Devils, Michigan Wolverines and Arizona Wildcats. After a wild weekend of games, those three looked even more locked in for top seeds.

However, things aren’t as clear-cut for Iowa State. They controlled their own destiny, but lost to the BYU Cougars on the road in Provo. As a result, the UConn Huskies jumped back into the fourth No. 1 seed, defeating the Villanova Wildcats.

That erased the damage done by the loss UConn suffered in Storrs to the Creighton Bluejays. And, it puts the Cyclones in a tough spot, as they are on the two-seed line in the latest Bracketology prediction shared by Joe Lunardi of ESPN, but somewhat at the mercy of seeding rules.

Iowa State remains on two-seed line in Bracketology update

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey pointing on court. — Feb 21, 2026; Provo, Utah, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) reacts during the second half against the BYU Cougars at Marriott Center. | Aaron Baker-Imagn Images

They are the No. 2 seed in the Midwest right now, which is where they have been recently, but things are far from settled with just under three weeks until Selection Sunday. Because they are viewed as the No. 5-ranked team in the seeding, Iowa State cannot be in the same region as the No. 1 overall seed team, which is currently the Duke Blue Devils.

That matches them up with Michigan as their No. 1 seed, getting to play opening weekend games in St. Louis. If they jump back to the No. 1 seed line in the South Region, they would be playing first weekend in Philadelphia with the regional in Houston.

That is a huge advantage for the Houston Cougars, who are currently the No. 2 seed in the South and would be playing in their backyard should they make it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament.

Movin' Up#Cyclones | #C5C pic.twitter.com/lLkXZNtM4e
— Iowa State Men’s Basketball (@CycloneMBB) February 23, 2026

What could determine Iowa State’s fate is its matchup on March 2 on the road against Arizona. If they win that game, keeping them off the one-line would be an incredibly difficult task. The Wildcats own a head-to-head victory over the Huskies this season, which would likely push UConn back to a two-seed.

Only time will tell how things will ultimately shake out when it comes to seeding. The Cyclones still mostly control their own destiny, because a win over Arizona should solidify their standing as a No. 1 seed as long as they don’t suffer any other resume-altering results.

For now, Iowa State is lined up to face the Wright State Raiders, the automatic qualifier from the Horizon League. Should they survive that matchup, they would face either Villanova, the No. 7 seed and at-large team from the Big East, or the UCLA Bruins, the No. 10 seed and at-large team from the Big Ten, in the Round of 32.