Iowa State Cyclones in Great Spot for NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch

The Iowa State Cyclones spot in the NCAA Tournament looks to be secure as of now.

Feb 1, 2026; Manhattan, Kansas, USA; Iowa State Cyclones head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches his team during the second half against the Kansas State Wildcats at Bramlage Coliseum. | Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

The 2025-26 men’s basketball season has been a special one for the Iowa State Cyclones thus far.

History was made when they won their first 16 games of the season. It was both the best start in program history and the longest winning streak at any point for the team. They reached as high as No. 2 in the AP Poll Top 25 and have been ranked inside the top 10 for multiple months.

A two-game losing streak had some people worrying about the team, but they have returned with a vengeance. In the four games since, they have won by at least 30 points three times against the UCF Knights, Colorado Buffaloes and Kansas State Wildcats.

Now 20-2 in the season, it should come as little surprise that the Cyclones are in such a great spot in the recent Men’s Bubble Watch shared by Neil Paine of ESPN.

Iowa State viewed as lock for NCAA Tournament

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger congratulates forward Joshua Jefferson (5) after a triple-double during the second half against UFC in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball on Jan. 20, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Iowa State is one of six Big 12 teams that are considered a lock for the NCAA Tournament, along with the Arizona Wildcats, Houston Cougars, Kansas Jayhawks, BYU Cougars and Texas Tech Red Raiders.

The conference is projected to have 7.4 bids, with 6.4 at-large bids. UCF has landed in the “Should Be In” tier, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys and TCU Horned Frogs have work to do.

In many bracketology projections, Arizona is the No. 1 overall seed. They are one of two undefeated teams remaining in men’s college basketball, along with the Miami (OH) RedHawks.

All six of those Big 12 programs are currently ranked inside the top 16 of the AP Poll, which will have them all in the mix to be seeded four or better in the NCAA Tournament if they can keep up this level of play.

Plenty of challenges await Cyclones on hardwood

Jan 17, 2026; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey (3) dribbles the ball against Cincinnati Bearcats guard Jizzle James (2) in the first half at Fifth Third Arena. | Aaron Doster-Imagn Images

Recent projections have T.J. Otzelberger’s squad as a No. 2 seed. They were a No. 1 seed for a few weeks, but slipped in the rankings because of the two-game losing streak. Making up ground and moving back into the mix for a No. 1 seed will be easier said than done.

There looks to be a sizable gap between the currently projected No. 1s, Arizona, the Duke Blue Devils, Michigan Wolverines and UConn Huskies, and teams on the two-seed line. However, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday.

The Cyclones have one game against each of the other five Big 12 locks. If they can produce a winning record against that quintet, especially if the Wildcats are one of the teams they topple, they could be right back in the mix for a top spot in a region.