Iowa State Football Shafted in Recent Bowl Game Projections

A win over the Oklahoma State Cowboys wasn't enough to change the Iowa State Cyclones bowl projections.

Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers watches from the sideline during the fourth quarter against Oklahoma State on Oct. 31, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Iowa State Cyclones picked up their best win so far of the Jimmy Rogers Era on Halloween Night at Jack Trice Stadium.

In a fitting matchup for the evening, Iowa State hosted the Oklahoma State Cowboys, with the teams getting into the Halloween spirit wearing black and orange uniforms. A raucous crowd at  Jack Trice Stadium was ready for the first game under lights in 2026, and they were treated to a show.

An exciting game, which was a back-and-forth affair, resulted in the Cyclones pulling off the upset, 51-49, when Kyle Konrardy knocked the winning kick through the uprights when the clock hit zero. That pushed Iowa State’s record to 4-4 and was the first win against a ranked opponent this season in their fifth try.

A win of that magnitude changed the program's outlook, putting it only two wins away from bowl eligibility. Shockingly, that win wasn’t enough to push the Cyclones into the projections for a bowl game.

Iowa State wrongly projected not to play in bowl game

Oct 31, 2026; Ames, Iowa, USA; Oklahoma State Cowboys defensive end James Williams (10) tackles Iowa State Cyclones running back Aiden Flora (21) at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach of ESPN shared College Football Playoff and bowl game projections following a wild Week 9 in college football, and Iowa State still isn’t in the mix. That is a surprising turn of events given how their season has unfolded thus far.

The Cyclones need only two victories the rest of the season to get bowl-eligible. They have two games remaining at home, where they have played much better football this season; their only loss at Jack Trice Stadium was against the Utah Utes, who might be the best team in the Big 12 this season.

Iowa State will host the Cincinnati Bearcats on Nov. 14, and the Kansas State Wildcats on Nov. 28. Their path to bowl eligibility is simple: protect home field by winning those games, and they are in the mix.

🎥 Game 8 Recap pic.twitter.com/pObmwxykDV

— Iowa State Football (@CycloneFB) November 4, 2026

Of course, Rogers and his team want to win as many games as possible. They have failed to get into the same kind of rhythm on the offensive end when they are on the road compared to when at home, and have two tough road trips remaining: in Waco against the Baylor Bears on Nov. 7 and in Orlando against the UCF Knights, who knocked off the BYU Cougars.

Those certainly won’t be easy games, but getting a victory on the road could put the team in a position to guarantee better than a .500 record in the first season with Rogers at the helm.

That isn’t something many people expected. Coming into the year, many projections had the Cyclones as the worst team in the conference. They have quickly dispelled that and are looking to shock even more people by earning a bowl game bid in Year 1 of the new regime.