Iowa State Football vs. Cincinnati: 3 Bold Predictions in Week 11

The Iowa State Cyclones are welcoming the Cincinnati Bearcats to Jack Trice Stadium in Week 11.

Cincinnati Bearcats cornerback Ormanie Arnold (8) tackles Iowa State Cyclones wide receiver Chase Sowell (0) in the third quarter of the NCAA football game between the Cincinnati Bearcats and Iowa State Cyclones at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Oct. 4, 2025. | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

The Iowa State Cyclones just got through one of the toughest four-game stretches any team in college football has had to go through this season.

They faced the BYU Cougars and Arizona Wildcats on the road, hosted the Oklahoma State Cowboys, and then were on the road again to play the Baylor Bears. A 1-3 record was compiled, but the Cyclones have looked much better in recent weeks against stiff competition.

Back at Jack Trice Stadium, they are set to host the Cincinnati Bearcats, who are 5-4 on the season, leaving them one victory short of bowl eligibility. Making a bowl game is an attainable goal for Iowa State as well, and picking up a win over Cincinnati would help immensely.

Will they be able to get it done? Here are three bold predictions for the Week 11 matchup between the Cyclones and Bearcats.

Ground Games Get Going

Nov 7, 2026; Waco, Texas, USA; Iowa State running back Aiden Flora (21) scores on a 40 yard touchdown run against the Baylor Bears during the first half at McLane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Chris Jones-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Neither Iowa State nor Cincinnati would be considered high-powered offenses, but both teams have some explosive players. The Cyclones have running back Aiden Flora, who leads the Big 12 with 1,119 rushing yards, and the Bearcats have Cole Tabb, who leads the nation with 8.9 yards per rush.

Both players are going to have their moments against defenses that are susceptible to surrendering big plays. Iowa State has struggled all season with tackling, the worst team in the country in that regard. Cincinnati has allowed 4.8 yards per carry this season.

That means plenty of opportunities for Flora and Tabb to make big plays, and they will take full advantage. Those two will combined for more than 275 yards combined. The teams will surpass the 450-yard mark combined on the ground, with both defenses being suspect and each team wanting to set the tone with their respective rushing attacks. 

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Jaylen Raynor Stays Hot

Jaylen Raynor finds WIDE OPEN Cameron Pettaway who brings it to the HOUSE for @CycloneFB pic.twitter.com/qyJPCxyxvv

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 7, 2026

One of the most encouraging developments as the season has progressed for the Cyclones is the performance of Jaylen Raynor. He got benched for the second half against Arizona, but was inserted back into the starting lineup against Oklahoma State and has looked completely different since.

In his last two games, he has completed 40-of-65 passes for 565 yards, five touchdowns and one interception. He added 71 yards and two more scores on the ground, looking like the dynamic player he was with the Arkansas State Red Wolves.

That production will continue against the Bearcats. They have surrendered an average of 276 yards per game and 65.1% completion. For the third straight game, Raynor will throw for at least 250 yards and two touchdowns.

Iowa State Gets Much-Needed Win

Iowa State head coach Jimmy Rogers reacts on the sideline during the first quarter against Oklahoma State on Oct. 31, 2026, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. (Photo by Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune) | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

This is shaping up to be another shootout that could go down to the wire, just like the matchups with the Mountaineers and Cowboys. Just as was the case against those two teams, Iowa State is going to do enough to get the win.

The Cyclones will continue the magic at Jack Trice, winning 42-38 to win their fifth game of the season and get back to the .500 mark. It will put them one victory away from bowl eligibility, needing to beat either the UCF Knights on the road or the Kansas State Wildcats in their final game of the season.