Games To Watch With Impact on Iowa State’s Big 12 Seeding

Big 12 seeding is still up in the air for the Iowa State Cyclones and plenty of games will have an impact on where they land.

Feb 25, 2026; Boulder, Colorado, USA; Kansas State Wildcats guard PJ Haggerty (4) shoots the ball in the first half against the Colorado Buffaloes at the CU Events Center. | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Despite an incredible beginning to the season where the Iowa State Cyclones started 16-0, it’s been a struggle to keep up with that level of consistency.

They have struggled to keep up that pace, with their offense being a main culprit. And it will have an implication on where they are seeded for the Big 12 tournament.

Iowa State currently sits at 11-6 in the conference standings, placing them in fifth in the Big 12. The four teams ahead are the Arizona Wildcats, Houston Cougars, Texas Tech Red Raiders, and Kansas Jayhawks.

The Cyclones are in desperate need of a top-four seed if they want a second bye, but that can only happen with certain implications.

Iowa State has unlikely road to top-four seed

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches the game from the bench during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball against Texas Tech on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite currently being the five seed, Iowa State could be as high as a four seed or as low as a six seed, depending on results this weekend. While one could argue that the three seed is available, Texas Tech has the head-to-head victory over the Cyclones.

Iowa State takes on the Arizona State Sun Devils this weekend to end their season. A win would increase their conference record to 12-6, clinching at the minimum a five seed. A loss would drop their record to 11-7, and put their faith in other teams to help them keep them there, as opposed to a six seed.

If the Cyclones were to win over Arizona State, they would need Kansas to lose to the Kansas State Wildcats in the Sunflower Showdown.

It’s unlikely, as the Jayhawks are at home, and won the road meeting a few months back by 24. Kansas has a 90.8% chance to win per ESPN analytics, and is heavily favored. That game takes place on March 7 at 1 pm CT.

Iowa State Big 12 conference tournament seeding:

Four seed: Win + Kansas Loss
Five seed: Win or TCU Loss
Six seed: Lose + TCU Win

— Lucca Mazzie (@luccamazzie11) March 7, 2026

If Iowa State loses, it would need the Cincinnati Bearcats to take down the TCU Horned Frogs to clinch the five seed.

If TCU wins, the Cyclones would fall to a six seed. The Horned Frogs are a small favorite at home and given a 55.4% chance to get the win. That game is also on March 7 at 1 pm CT.

It seems somewhat unlikely that Iowa State gets a double bye in the conference tournament, but given a few scenarios, it certainly is possible.

Cyclone fans want to cheer for Cincinnati this weekend to beat TCU, and despite never cheering for their rivals, wouldn’t mind seeing a Kansas State victory this weekend as well.