Iowa State Cyclones Surprisingly Only See Minimal Increase in Chances To Make CFP

What are the chances that the Iowa State Cyclones have to make the CFP after their Week 5 win?

Iowa State Cyclones' football head coach Matt Campbell reacts during the first quarter game against Arizona in the Big-12 conference showdown on Sept. 27, 2025, at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

In Week 5, the Iowa State Cyclones were able to have their best game of the season against the Arizona Wildcats to move to 5-0 on the season. While every win in the Big 12 is an important one for the Cyclones, this was also a convincing win that the team needed. 

Due to their close victory before the bye week against the Arkansas State Red Wolves, and the three-point wins against the Kansas State Wildcats and Iowa Hawkeyes, Iowa State wasn’t being highly regarded despite their record. 

That unfortunately seems to be a trend that they are having a hard time shaking, with the team not moving at all in the AP Poll despite a 25-point win against a Big 12 opponent. It seems like in order to gain some of the recognition and respect that they deserve, it is going to take more wins for the Cyclones. 

Fortunately, even though not every game has been pretty, Iowa State looks like a team that is trending up if Week 5 was any indication. Now, they will be continuing to try and push toward winning their conference. 

The Athletic (subscription required) recently upgraded the chances of the Cyclones making the College Football Playoff by four percent after their Week 5 win. Now, Iowa State has a 35 percent chance of making the CFP. 

Should Their Chances Have Increased More?

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

With a 35 percent chance currently of making the CFP, Iowa State came in ranked with a plethora of teams with losses in front of them. Despite being undefeated and coming off another Power Four victory, the Cyclones aren’t getting the recognition that they deserve. 

When looking at the teams that are above them, it is the Texas Tech Red Raiders who are the top team from the Big 12. The Red Raiders were listed with a 47 percent chance of making the playoff and are also the favorite to win the conference at this point. 

While Texas Tech might have the best win of any Big 12 team with their victory against the Utah Utes, the Cyclones are still undefeated as well. The win against the Wildcats in Week 5 figured to help improve the resume, but it appears to be minimal. 

In Week 6, Iowa State will be heading on the road as a slight underdog against the Cincinnati Bearcats. This will present the Cyclones with another opportunity to improve their resume against a team that is being viewed as a quality opponent on the road.