Historical Data Highlights How Well Iowa State Cyclones Might Do in NCAA Tournament

What is the Iowa State Cyclones' upside in March Madness?

Iowa State Cyclones men's basketball head coach T.J. Otzelberger watches the game from the bench during the second half in the Big-12 conference men’s basketball against Texas Tech on Feb. 28, 2026, at Hilton Coliseum in Ames, Iowa. | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones are getting set for their final game of the year at home, and it will be an emotional senior night for some of their players. However, there is still plenty of work to be done this year, and the program will be hoping to accomplish some great things. 

It has been no secret of late that the Cyclones have not played their best basketball. While the travel and scheduling have been tough down the stretch, this is a team that has been trending in the wrong direction for the last couple of weeks. 

Fortunately, they have had some time off following the loss to the Arizona Wildcats, and that was likely needed. Now, with the Big 12 tournament looming, the team is going to be seeking to build up some momentum once again. While they likely won’t be getting the double bye, barring a massive upset, they are still going to be a threat in the tournament. However, while the Big 12 tournament will be important for them, they also have to be seeking success in the NCAA tournament coming up. 

James Fletcher III of On3 recently used historical data from the last five years from KenPom to break down teams into tiers based on their efficiency. Unfortunately for the Cyclones, they only met the criteria to make the Elite 8 as of now. 

Iowa State Needs to Improve to Meet Criteria

Iowa State Cyclones guard Tamin Lipsey | Aryanna Frank-Imagn Images

While historical data never guarantees anything, it does help paint a picture of how past National champions have been performing going into the tournament. In order to meet the threshold, a team needs to have an offensive efficiency of 124.1 and a defensive efficiency of 91.3. 

Currently, Iowa State isn’t off too far on those marks with an offensive efficiency of 123.4 and a defensive efficiency of 93.4. While they are slightly off for meeting the National champion criteria, they are just .1 off from meeting it defensively. 

With another game against the Arizona State Sun Devils coming up, the Cyclones will have a great chance to improve their efficiency numbers. If they can get a good game on the defensive end of the court, they could move back into the Final Four caliber tier heading into the Big 12 tournament. Overall, while there have been some struggles of late for the program, this is still a team that could make some noise come March.