Iowa State Cyclones' Miniscule Increase to Win Big 12 is Puzzling Following Win

Why don't the Iowa State Cyclones have a better chance of winning the Big 12?

Iowa State Cyclones head coach Matt Campbell and defensive coordinator Jon Heacock reacts during the fourth quarter against Iowa in the Cy-Hawk football at Jack Trice Stadium on Sept. 6, 2025, in Ames, Iowa | Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

The Iowa State Cyclones are coming off their best win of the season against the Arizona Wildcats, and the team must be very pleased with the direction that they are headed in. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to separate themselves as of now in the conference. 

After a fantastic year in 2024, the goal for the Cyclones was to win the Big 12 this campaign and they have taken the necessary steps toward achieving that goal so far. To start the season, Iowa State picked up a victory against the then 17th ranked Kansas State Wildcats. 

That win looked like it was going to be an early signature win for the program, but the Wildcats have struggled since. Recently, they picked up their second win in the conference against the Wildcats. With two wins in the conference, the team will be playing their first conference road game against the Cincinnati Bearcats, and it will be a tough test for the program. 

The Athletic (subscription required) recently projected the Cyclones to have a 21 percent chance of winning the Big 12, which is just a one percent increase from the previous week. 

Minuscule Increase is Puzzling

Nirmalendu Majumdar/Ames Tribune / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

After winning their second conference game of the season and remaining in first place in the Big 12, it is surprising to see the slight increase in their percentage. Arizona was an undefeated opponent at the time, and the Cyclones defeated them convincingly. 

Riding the momentum from their win against the Utah Utes, the Texas Tech Red Raiders are projected to have the best chance of winning the conference, currently at 30 percent, and that is deserved following that signature win.

Furthermore, after a victory in Week 5, the Arizona State Sun Devils are quickly becoming a threat in the conference, and the Cyclones will meet up with them later in the season. 

Currently, Iowa State has done all they can in the conference and overall in 2025 to deserve a little bit higher of a chance of winning the Big 12. Seeing their chances only going up one percent after a win is rather puzzling, but the team continues to not receive a lot of recognition in projection models. 

What could be a reason for that is the challenging schedule that will be coming up after their second bye. However, the Cyclones performed excellently in Week 5 against a good conference opponent, and they should be receiving a bit more respect for what they have accomplished.