The Monday Tipoff: Hawkeyes Will Face A Difficult Early Stretch
The first game of Iowa’s nonconference men’s basketball schedule is on Friday night at Carver-Hawkeye Arena, an 8 p.m. tipoff against SIU-Edwardsville, which starts the season at 326th in Ken Pomeroy’s rankings.
The last game is on Dec. 29, a home game against Kennesaw State, 318th in KenPom.
Those bookends sandwich a critical part of Iowa's season.
It’s what’s in the middle of that November/December schedule that will go a long way in determining the Hawkeyes’ path this season.
From Nov. 28-Dec. 21, Iowa will play seven games against teams in the KenPom top 100, at least four against teams in the top 50.
In that stretch will be two Big Ten games — a Dec. 6 game at Michigan (21st in KenPom) and a Dec. 9 home game with Minnesota (81st).
Iowa coach Fran McCaffery noted last week that such schedules are “the new normal, I guess.”
“I think it’s the trend,” he said. “It’s changed. For many years, you tried to play 10 or 12 easy games, and work your way up to where you’re ready to go for the conference season, which is typically after Christmas.”
Iowa has two “Challenge” games in the nonconference schedule — a Nov. 11 home game against DePaul (77th) in the Gavitt Games (Big Ten vs. Big East) and a Dec. 3 game against Syracuse (51st) in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
There is also the Las Vegas Invitational, when the Hawkeyes will play Texas Tech (15th) on Nov. 28 and either Creighton (36th) or San Diego State (97th) the next day. They get two home games as part of the tournament — Nov. 21 against North Florida (184th) and Nov. 24 against Cal Poly (331st).
Iowa plays at Iowa State (47th) on Dec. 12 and at the United Center against Cincinnati (27th) on Dec. 21st.
McCaffery knows that stronger schedules look good on the NCAA Tournament resumé, and that there is a challenge among the sport to get games in November and December to draw interest.
“That’s why the Challenge games came into play,” McCaffery said. “That’s why you see the growth of the (multi-team events), and the quality of teams you play in those. We’re always going to play Iowa State, but we’ve chosen to add Cincinnati in the United Center, and this is a game before Christmas. We play two league games in December.
“All of those are by design to create more interest in college basketball in the months of November and December, but also to, I think, put ourselves in better position on Selection Sunday. The committee looks, ‘OK, did they go play people? Did they have a pretty good team coming back? Did they challenge the team with a schedule that really prepares them to compete in a very difficult Big Ten season and then, also, the NCAA Tournament?’”
Those two early Big Ten games are especially critical. Sweep, and you've got a nice 2-0 record to carry into January. You're OK with a split. The last thing you want is an 0-2 hole before you even get into the bulk of conference play.
Iowa was 40th in the NCAA’s NET, the formula used by the NCAA selection committee, last season. The Hawkeyes’ nonconference schedule was 174th, the overall schedule ranked 63rd. Iowa was 6-11 in Quadrant 1 games, 6-0 in Quadrant 2 games.
Those numbers gave Iowa a 10th seed in the NCAA Tournament.
Right now, numbers like that don’t mean a thing, because it’s a long way to Selection Sunday.
The goal for McCaffery and the Hawkeyes is to be at their best when that late November-early December stretch hits. That isn’t a long way away.
Other numbers
Iowa starts the season at No. 41 in the KenPom ratings and No. 39 in the Sagarin ratings.
How Sagarin ranks the teams in Iowa's schedule in November and December:
SIU-Edwardsville — 320th.
DePaul — 108th
Oral Roberts — 197th
North Florida — 164th
Cal Poly — 324th
Texas Tech — 11th
Creighton — 56th
San Diego State — 60th
Syracuse — 34th
Michigan — 15th
Minnesota — 62nd
Iowa State — 29th
Cincinnati — 32nd
Kennesaw State — 328th
