Iowa Must Avoid Trap Game vs. Ohio State

The Iowa Hawkeyes face a must win scenario against Ohio State.

Feb 4, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum during the first half against the Washington Huskies at Alaska Airlines Arena at Hec Edmundson Pavilion. Mandatory Credit: Steven Bisig-Imagn Images | Steven Bisig-Imagn Images

Coming off a tough road loss, the Iowa Hawkeyes know they must take advantage of their final home games.

One of those is against No. 3 Michigan, a team only the Wisconsin Badgers have been able to defeat this season. Keep in mind though, Wisconsin just took down Iowa, 84-71.

Things get even more interesting looking at Iowa's next opponent, Ohio State, who took down Wisconsin last week, 86-69.

Sure, the Buckeyes followed it up with a six point loss to No. 15 Michigan State, but they had to play on the road and MSU is a far better team than the Badgers.

Ohio State is the Definition of a Trap Game

Iowa forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) looks to score as Northwestern guard Jayden Reid (4) defends Feb. 8, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Consistency has been an issue for the Buckeyes but their last three losses have all been to Top 15 teams. Going back a little further, four of their last five have been to ranked teams and the other was in Madison.

Wisconsin has gotten the best of Iowa and Ohio State, but at least the Buckeyes were able to get their win back. Iowa doesn't' have that luxury as the only team they get to play again is No. 12 Nebraska.

On paper, Iowa's given a 64.1% chance to win. First year head coach Ben McCollum knows he can't let a red-hot start go to waste, and if he does, it'll prove all the doubters right.

When the lights shine the brightest, Iowa simply isn't ready to compete with the top teams in this conference. They're currently 9-7 in B1G play, the same record the Buckeyes have coming into Carver.

Analytics Favor Iowa

Iowa forward Cam Manyawu (3) and Iowa forward Alvaro Folgueiras (7) celebrate during a Big Ten basketball game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers Feb. 17, 2026 at Carver-Hawkeye Arena in Iowa City, Iowa. | Julia Hansen/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

ESPN Analytics aforementioned 64.1% chance for Iowa to win is a boost of confidence to this team. They'll enter CHA as 6.5 point favorites which is quite a significant total knowing this Iowa team has dropped three of their last four.

Ohio State is dangerous, and the last thing Iowa wants to do is slip up here and let the Buckeyes get into the NCAA Tournament over them. The Hawkeyes could've been a lock had they taken down the Badgers, but now they'll have to earn it.

Victories over the Buckeyes and Penn State in their next game should all but guarantee them a spot in the dance, though if they get blown out in their last two games things get interesting. Iowa is well on their way to making the tournament, it's just about taking care of business and avoiding a trap game like this one.

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