Why Iowa Basketball is Poised to Prove Joe Lunardi's Early 2027 Bracketology Wrong

The Hawkeyes weren't exactly respected in Lunardi's debut 2027 Bracketology for ESPN. Here's why Iowa will prove his prediction wrong.

Mar 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum instructs his team against the Florida Gators in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images | Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Bennett Stirtz’s value to Iowa in the 2025-26 campaign cannot be overstated.

The lead guard was incredible for the Hawkeyes, and the lack of his presence will undoubtedly be a difference-maker in the 2026-27 season. Both Alvaro Folgueiras (transferred to Louisville) and Tavion Banks (out of eligibility) are also notable losses. 

But Iowa brings back all of its wing production and its starting five-man in Cam Manyawu from last year’s Elite Eight team.

The Hawkeyes also added guard Ty’Reek Coleman and big man Andrew McKeever via the transfer portal – both of whom figure to be starters or, at the very least, key rotational pieces. 

And the elephant in the room: Iowa’s head coach is Ben McCollum. He has only spent two seasons at the Division 1 level and just one as a high-major head man, but McCollum has already proven himself as one of the best coaches in the sport. 

Mar 28, 2026; Houston, TX, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes head coach Ben McCollum looks on in the first half against the Illinois Fighting Illini during an Elite Eight game of the South Regional of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Toyota Center. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

In other words: the Hawkeyes aren’t destined for a step back in 2027. If anything, Iowa may actually put together a better regular season. And a deep postseason run once again remains in the cards. 

But that’s one take: another opinion is that Iowa’s 2026-2027 season is fated to result in the Hawkeyes winding up as the ‘Last Team In’ for the Big Dance.

That would be the take that ESPN’s resident bracketologist – Joe Lunardi – unveiled on Wednesday. And, if it wasn’t already clear, it’s one we wholeheartedly disagree with. 

Why Iowa should be all but an NCAA Tournament lock for 2026-2027

Mar 22, 2026; Tampa, FL, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes guard Kael Combs (11) dribbles the ball against Florida Gators guard Urban Klavzar (7) in the first half during a second round game of the men's 2026 NCAA Tournament at Benchmark International Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images | Matt Pendleton-Imagn Images

At this time of the year, a disclaimer is always necessary: it’s way too early to come to any hard conclusions. That said, there are some givens regarding this Iowa team. 

Most importantly, as previously mentioned, McCollum is one of the best coaches in the country. From an X’s and O’s perspective, few are better than McCollum, and his culture-building isn’t far behind, nor is his roster-construction. 

At first glance, heading into the 2026-27 season, it may not appear as though Iowa has some star-studded crew.

But the general consensus last year was that the Hawkeyes had Stirtz and not much else – which meant a very low ceiling in the tournament. Instead, the entire supporting cast stepped up in a massive way to help the Hawkeyes to an Elite Eight. 

This time around, Iowa is more dynamic. The guards and wings – including Kael Combs, Cooper Koch, Isaia Howard and Tate Sage, to name a few – have an additional year of experience. 

McKeever, at 7-foot-3 and with a versatile skill set, adds a new dimension to the squad while Coleman gives the Hawkeyes another scorer and creator. 

And McCollum, like any head coach with a year under his belt at a new location, will take another step forward. Does that mean Iowa is a Big Ten title contender?

Probably not. But it does mean the Hawkeyes are a surefire NCAA Tournament squad and poised to be comfortably distanced from the bubble come next February and March.