The Breakdown: Iowa vs. Northwestern

Breaking down Saturday’s game between Iowa and Northwestern.

Game facts

Time and place — 11 a.m. (CDT), Ryan Field (47,130), Evanston, Ill.

TV — ESPN2 (Roy Philpott, PBP; Kelly Stouffer, analyst; Lauren Sisler, sideline)

Radio — Hawkeye Radio Network. Also available on Sirius Ch. 81 and XM Ch. 81

Records — Iowa 5-2 (2-2 Big Ten), Northwestern 1-5 (0-4)

Rankings — Iowa is No. 19 in the coaches poll and No. 20 in the Associated Press poll.

Series — Iowa leads, 50-27-3. Northwestern has won the last three games.

Streaks — Iowa has won one. Northwestern has lost four consecutive games.

The lines

Point spread — Iowa -9 1/2

Moneyline — Iowa -391, Northwestern +300

Over/under — 37

The weather

AccuWeather game-time forecast — 49 degrees, partly cloudy.

Forecast for the day — High of 52, periods of rain in the afternoon.

Fast facts

• Iowa had a 21-game winning streak in the series from 1974-94. Since then, Northwestern has won 13 of the last 22 games.

• Iowa has allowed just 98 first downs this season, an average of 14 per game. That ranks sixth fewest in FBS play.

• Iowa is allowing 11.6 points per game, the lowest total in Kirk Ferentz's 21 seasons as head coach. The Hawkeyes rank fifth in FBS play in scoring defense.

When Iowa has the ball

The good news — the Hawkeyes rushed for 102 yards last week.

The not-so-good news — it took them 33 carries to do it, and two Mekhi Sargent runs of 35 yards to close the game put them over the 100-yard mark.

So, Saturday has to be about getting the Hawkeyes' running game going. Northwestern's rushing defense ranks 11th among the 14 Big Ten teams, so there are some opportunities here.

Iowa's offensive line seems to have stabilized with the return of left tackle Alaric Jackson, whose play has improved since his return from injury three weeks ago.

"I wish we were rushing for 250 a game in a perfect world," Ferentz said. "I think we made progress last week. I think things looked a little more cohesive with our blocking. It starts there. There's a lot of moving parts there.

"Getting A.J. back in the lineup, he looked a little sharper Saturday. Just stabilizing that part of equation will help us. I think we gained a little ground Saturday. But we still have work to do and it's going to be that way for a while."

The Hawkeyes get back-to-back games against Wisconsin and Minnesota after next week's off-week. This would be a good game to gain some momentum for the running game.

Iowa's passing game will miss wide receiver Brandon Smith, who could miss up to five weeks with an injury to his right leg. But there's still depth in the room — Tyrone Tracy slides into Smith's starting spot, and this could mean more playing time for Oliver Martin.

When Northwestern has the ball

Speaking of running the ball, Northwestern ran for 184 yards in last season's 14-10 win over Iowa last season, and running back Isaiah Bowser had 165 of those.

Bowser is healthy again after missing three games earlier this season, so the Hawkeyes already know their focus for the week, especially considering Northwestern has out rushed the Hawkeyes 529-232 in the last three matchups.

It will be interesting to see who starts at quarterback for the Wildcats. Aidan Smith and Hunter Johnson are co-No. 1s on the depth chart. Johnson was hurt against Wisconsin, and Smith started the last two games.

As noted above, the Hawkeyes haven't allowed a lot of points this season. Northwestern hasn't scored a lot of points, either — the Wildcats have averaged 12.5 per game, and only Rutgers (11.1) is worse in the Big Ten.

The Hawkeyes got two takeaways in last Saturday's 26-20 win over Purdue. They would like to get more turnovers in this game — the Wildcats are minus-1 for the season in turnover margin.

The final thought

This is never an easy game for the Hawkeyes.

Ryan Field takes on a black-and-gold look when the Hawkeyes are there, but Iowa has won just three of its last 10 games there.

Don't look for style points in this game, although it would be nice for the Hawkeyes heading into a week off.

Iowa's best-case scenario is win however possible, then get rested for what's ahead. Northwestern, though, never makes anything easy for the Hawkeyes.