The Monday Kickoff: November Comes Roaring In For Iowa

Hawkeyes have no margin of error in final four games.

The bye weeks are gone.

It’s November.

Four games are all that remains in Iowa’s regular season, and the Hawkeyes don’t have much of a margin of error to win the Big Ten West Division.

Iowa can’t afford a loss in any of the last games — Saturday at Wisconsin (6-2 overall, 3-2 Big Ten), Nov. 16 at home against Minnesota (8-0, 5-0), Nov. 23 against Illinois (5-4, 3-3) and Nov. 29 at Nebraska (4-5, 2-4). The Hawkeyes also need some help if they do run the table — Minnesota would have to lose once more.

November hasn’t been kind to Iowa the last two seasons — a 2-2 record each time.

There have been great games (the 55-24 win over Ohio State in 2017), followed by clunkers (a 38-14 loss at Wisconsin the next week). There was the 63-0 win over Illinois last season followed by the 31-28 home win over Nebraska that salvaged the month after losses to Purdue and Northwestern.

A look at some key story lines heading into the final weeks:

1. The November of Nate

It may seem like Captain Obvious to say that quarterback Nate Stanley is going to be the biggest key for the Hawkeyes.

He’s a senior, a three-year starter, with plenty of experience in big games.

Stanley’s low mark in the month came in that loss to Wisconsin, when he was 8-of-24 for just 41 yards.

But his numbers for the month over a two-year period are better than his averages. He is 136-of-229 for 1,509 yards and 15 touchdowns against just three interceptions. His completion percentage of .594 in November is better than his career average of .576, and he is averaging 188.6 yards per game in November compared to 172.9 for his career.

This is his best season in terms of the depth of Stanley’s receiving options on the roster. His primary targets of Ihmir Smith-Marsette, Tyrone Tracy and Nico Ragaini, as well as Brandon Smith when he returns from his leg injury are the best core of wide receivers he has had in three seasons. Running back Tyler Goodson can be split out into the passing lanes. His tight end group of Shaun Beyer and Sam LaPorta, along with Nate Wieting when he returns from his injury, is becoming more of a factor.

The Hawkeyes will go as Stanley goes this month. He seems to be in a position to have a great November.

2. Heal thyself

Iowa is coming off its second bye week, and the Hawkeyes need some key players back.

Linebacker Kristian Welch, the team’s leading tackler, has missed the last two games. Smith could be back before the end of the season.

But maybe the most important player to get back would be offensive lineman Kyler Schott, who had provided some stability at guard before he went out with a foot injury.

The middle of Iowa’s line struggled at times in this five-game stretch between bye weeks, and while things seem to have stabilized, it would be nice to get Schott back at some point.

None of those players were on Iowa's depth chart when it was released Monday, so it's unclear who, if any, will be available for Saturday's game.

3. The running game

Iowa’s running game started struggling from the first carry of the Michigan game, when Mekhi Sargent lost a fumble, but started to show signs of life in the last two wins over Purdue and Northwestern.

The Hawkeyes had 102 yards against the Boilermakers — they need two Sargent runs for 35 yards on their final possession to top the 100-yard mark — then came back with 123 against Northwestern.

It would be nice for Iowa to have a 100-yard rushing game from either Sargent, Goodson or Toren Young, but the way the offense is built, all three will get their carries.

Sargent seems out of his funk — he had 68 yards against Purdue, and then had 46 against Northwestern.

The Hawkeyes have been all about ball control this season, and a better running game helps that.

4. The best defense

Iowa’s defensive assistant coaches refrained from calling the Hawkeyes’ defense “elite” last week, but the numbers tell a story.

Iowa is third in Football Bowl Subdivision play in scoring defense at 10.1 points per game, sixth in total defense at 265.9 yards per game and eighth in rushing defense at 87.8 yards per game.

That’s going to be important in Saturday’s game against the Badgers, who lead the nation in total defense. There aren’t going to be a lot of points in that game. So it will also be important to …

5. Start getting takeaways

Iowa is at plus-2 in turnover margin … for the entire season.

The Hawkeyes have forced four fumbles and intercepted six passes in eight games this season. That is an average of 1.25 turnovers per game.

The best way to get pressure off the offense is to get turnovers. That might mean some gambling for Iowa’s defense, but it might make a big difference in October.