Breaking Down Where Iowa Landed in ESPN's Preseason FPI Rankings

ESPN's Football Power Index projects Iowa's national ranking, expected record, Big Ten title odds and College Football Playoff chances entering the 2026 season.

Aug 9, 2025; Iowa wide receiver Reece Vander Zee (15) lines up during the Hawkeyes Kids Day NCAA football open practice at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Mandatory Credit: Joseph Cress for the Des Moines Register | USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

As they say: you play the game on the field.

Still, the numbers and data like to paint a picture of teams on paper with analytics, metrics, and predictions. The latest ESPN FPI rankings for 2026 have done that for the Iowa Hawkeyes, along with the rest of the college football world.

The computers at ESPN are in line with most of the groupthink about the Hawkeyes in 2026 - they are going to beat who they are supposed to, struggle against the top teams, but ultimately put together another successful year under head coach Kirk Ferentz.

Iowa's ESPN FPI Ranking: 25

Would you expect anything different for the Hawkeyes than entering the season right on the cusp of the top 25? It's where Iowa has proven to live in preseason rankings and figures to be when they open up against Northern Illinois.

Projected Record: 7.6-4.4

ESPN's FPI is a little lower on Iowa here than history would tell us. To see Iowa come in under the eight-win mark would be a bit of a shock. The Hawkeyes have surpassed eight regular-season wins in seven of the last 10 years.

Chances of Making a Bowl Game: 86.2%

It is really a matter of where, not if, the Hawkeyes are going bowling. The schedule features plenty of layups for this team to stack up wins to secure a bowl bid. How good a bowl, though, remains unknown depending on whether Iowa can creep up to the 10-win mark or if they end up in a lower-tier bowl.

Chances of Winning the Big Ten: 1.7%

There's a chance, sure, but it's bleak. The Big Ten is going to be a gauntlet in general, but especially for Iowa, which gets Michigan and Ohio State in back-to-back games to open Big Ten play. If the Hawkeyes somehow win those two, this number will skyrocket.

Chances of Making the College Football Playoff: 11.8%

This number intrigues me. This is a legitimate chance for Iowa to crack the code and make the playoff. Yes, it's still a long shot, but it is higher than a handful of teams ranked higher than the Hawkeyes in the FPI.

Chances of Winning the National Championship: 0.3%

So, you're telling me there's a chance? I mean, the Indiana Hoosiers did it. There's no such thing as impossible in college football anymore. If the all-time losingest program can bring home a championship, then you can't dismiss the possibility of the Hawkeyes finding magic, even if the odds are those of a lottery ticket.