Iowa Football's CFP Odds Surge as ESPN FPI Ranking Takes a Jump

The data is starting to like Iowa more and more. The latest ESPN FPI saw some serious adjustments to the Hawkeyes' outlook this season.

Oct 9, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Iowa Hawkeyes running back Kamari Moulton (28) celebrates after rushing for a touchdown against the Washington Huskies during the fourth quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

The Iowa Hawkeyes put on quite a show in Seattle on Friday night on the way to a 41-24 victory over Washington that really wasn't even that close. It spurred Iowa on to a 5-1 record, with a 2-1 mark in Big Ten play, and has opened the door to start dreaming.

Iowa has been lurking this year, and it was all about the stretch of three games against Michigan, Ohio State, and Washington. Iowa came out of that run with two wins, which has opened the door for this team to rewrite its goals and expectations as we enter the second half of the college football season.

Iowa Football is lurking in the ESPN FPI top 25

The ESPN FPI is slower than other rankings and polls on the Hawkeyes, but it's coming around a little bit. Iowa has reentered the top 25 of the ESPN FPI this week, coming in at No. 23, a three-spot bump from last week.

ESPN FPI Predictions for Iowa Football

The Hawkeyes bounced back after the Ohio State loss with a statement win over Washington in Friday night primetime, and the data is backing up the performance. Barring something catastrophic, Iowa is going bowling, but that's the tip of the iceberg.

Iowa's College Football Playoff odds rebounded to nearly a one-in-four chance of finally cracking the code, which means this team has a real and legitimate path to making the 12-team field.

Projected Record: 8.8-3.3

Chance to Win Out: 5.1%

Chance to Make a Bowl Game: 99.7%

Chance to Win the Big Ten: 1.6%

Chance to Make the College Football Playoff: 21.3%

Chance to Make the National Championship: 0.6%

Chanc eto Win the National Championship: 0.2%

Riley Donald's Quick Thoughts

The number that stands out to me is the 5.1% chance that the Hawkeyes have to run the table and finish the year 11-1 with six straight wins. The schedule is set up to potentially see Iowa favored in all six games, but it's a gauntlet nonetheless.

It's even a throwback to the old Big Ten West, which may never die. The Hawkeyes' final six games are against members of the former Big Ten West, which consists of games against Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue, Illinois, and Nebraska.

The Hawkeyes navigate the hard part of the schedule (on paper) with a 2-1 record, which is a success. Now comes the part that requires discipline and execution to get where they want to go: the College Football Playoff.