New Era Cy-Hawk: Expectations for Iowa Football in Week 2 vs Iowa State

The Iowa Hawkeyes have a rather favorable slate to open up the 2026 season, to put things bluntly.

After a Week 1 home date with the Northern Illinois Huskies to open things up, Iowa stays at Kinnick Stadium for the annual Cy-Hawk showdown against the Iowa State Cyclones.

While the Cyclones have taken the last two, with 2023 negated due to Iowa recruiting violations, and six of the last 10 meetings decided by seven points or less, the 2026 version may be to a very different tune.

Less about what Iowa has and more about what Iowa State doesn't have

Iowa has its own questions, which we can't totally ignore. The Hawkeyes have a glaring question mark about who is going to be the quarterback and how the defensive line holds up with unknown depth.

Those are unavoidable, but elsewhere, such as running back, linebacker, and along the offensive line, the Hawkeyes are proven.

The same can't be said for Iowa State. Really anywhere.

Head coach Jimmy Rogers comes over from Washington State after Matt Campbell left for Penn State, while tearing the roster down to the studs in the process. And that may be generous.

Iowa State lost quarterback Rocco Becht, who followed Campbell, along with running back Carson Hansen, wide receiver Brett Eskildsen and Chase Sowell, and tight ends Ben Brahmer and Gabe Burkle. Wideout Xavier Townsend went to Purdue while running back Abu Sama III went to Wisconsin.

In total, Iowa State has to replace 2,584 passing yards and 16 passing touchdowns, 1,684 rushing yards from Sama and Hansen, and 2,017 receiving yards as the top six pass catchers have departed Ames.

What to expect from Iowa's defense in Week 2

I do expect Iowa's defense to be a little rusty in Week 1 against Northern Illinois, but to tighten the screws in Week 2 against the Cyclones.

Give Phil Parker one week of game film to fix things and watch what happens. There's a reason he is the best defensive coordinator in America, consistently outfitting a top-10 unit.

The Hawkeyes will have to contain Jaylen Raynor, who threw for 3,361 yards and 19 touchdowns with 423 yards and seven more scores on the ground for Arkansas State last year.

Despite that, Raynor will give the ball to Iowa. He threw 11 interceptions last year and has 28 in the last three years. That's where Iowa can flip this game. Get Iowa State into obvious passing situations and capitalize on the errant throws bound to happen.

Riley Donald's Week 2 Prediction

This game will start slow, but Iowa will be okay with that, and it may even be by design. Kirk Ferentz is okay with this thing being a bit of a slog in the first half, knowing what he has in Iowa's play in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

Iowa State's seven leading tacklers from last year, which were four defensive backs and three linebackers, are all at new programs. Iowa knows this. They know they are going to have the advantage pounding the ball over and over again.

The two-game winning streak ends with Iowa putting together a classic Iowa performance that slowly extends the lead via long, sustained drives and plays the field position game, while the defense seemingly forces a three-&-out each drive.

Iowa, as long as it avoids the turnovers, which have doomed them in the past, has every chance to move to 2-0 with a low-scoring win by 10-14 points that feels like a lot more.

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