Kansas at Oklahoma State Basketball Preview: Threes and Turnovers Could Decide Matchup
The first Big 12 road game didn’t go well for the Kansas Jayhawks. Now, Kansas has two chances to make a better showing on the road this week, with the first coming in Stillwater, where the Jayhawks have historically struggled against the Oklahoma State Cowboys.
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma State
Record: 8-8
KenPom: 108
Line: KU -6.5
Team Form
Oklahoma State is the only conference team yet to record a victory, but it nearly opened league play with a win against one of the only undefeated teams when it took Baylor to overtime at home. The next two road games didn’t go as well. Texas Tech beat OSU 90-73 and Iowa State held the Cowboys to 42 points in Saturday’s 66-42 route.
That’s been the story all year for OSU away from home. Oklahoma State is 1-6 in games either on the road or on a neutral site, with the lone win being a 72-57 victory over Tulsa in Oklahoma City. But OSU also has lost two games at home, including the first game of the season against Abilene Christian and by 14 points to Creighton. The Cowboys’ best win is probably that Tulsa (184th in KenPom) game or beating Sam Houston State (No. 185 in KenPom) at home.
Players to Watch
Former Jayhawk Bryce Thompson is still in Stillwater and is second on the team in scoring to start the year at 12.6 points per game. He’s developed more of a deep shot, which he didn’t have as a freshman, making 37% of his threes on five attempts per game. Saturday’s loss to Iowa State broke Thompson’s six-game streak of double-digit points where he scored 17 twice and 19 against Wofford. The Cowboys’ leading scorer this year is East Carolina transfer Javon Small, a 6-2 guard who replaced Avery Anderson and is averaging 14.8 points and a team-high 4.3 assists per game.
The post is made up of two four-star prospects. Eric Dailey Jr. – a 6-8, 230-pound freshman – is off to a strong start at 9.8 points and 5.8 boards in 25 minutes per game, and he will step out and take threes at a clip of nearly three per game. Meanwhile, the starting center is 6-11 freshman Brandon Garrison, who is averaging a team-high six boards along with 6.1 points, though he plays just 21 minutes per night and has a tendency to get into foul trouble. Still, he’s a force when in the game as an excellent shot blocker and offensive rebounder.
Matchups to Watch
The Oklahoma State offense relies on the three-point shot. OSU is shooting 36% and takes a shot from three on 44% of its field-goal attempts. And it’s no secret that this is the key to its success. Just take a look at these averages:
OSU’s eight wins: 12 threes per game | 41.8%
OSU’s eight losses: 6.4 threes per game | 28.8%
Kansas can’t afford to let Oklahoma State get hot from deep early in a hostile environment. And remember, all but one of the wins have come at Gallagher-Iba, so there’s a chance the Cowboys go off if KU isn’t ready.
What neutralizes the effectiveness of the three-point shot is the Cowboys’ inability to keep hold of the ball. KU fans know all too well about turnover struggles, but while the Jayhawks turn it over 17.2% of the time, Oklahoma State is up at 19.9%. OSU has turned it over more than 20 times in a game twice – including a high of 27 turnovers against Tulsa – and most recently turned it over 19 times against the Cyclones. And many of those are live-ball turnovers. Tulsa had 19 steals in that game, Iowa State recorded 13 on Saturday, and South Carolina State nabbed 18 steals on 22 OSU turnovers on New Year’s Eve. The Jayhawks will have success if they can turn OSU mistakes into transition points.
Prediction
Obviously, there are some nerves given what Kansas looked like last week in a road environment. And it’s not just any road environment. Since Bill Self took over, Kansas has lost in Stillwater eight times in 16 matchups. Though the Jayhawks have been victorious in the last two meetings by 11 points each.
I do think the UCF game served as a wake-up call and forced the move to Johnny Furphy into the starting lineup, which has looked to be Kansas’ best five-man rotation so far. KU needs the Hunter Dickinson that showed up Saturday and for Kevin McCullar and Furphy to knock down some outside shots.
Given Oklahoma State’s three-point shooting, there’s a wide variety of outcomes that could happen here. And I think the Cowboys make a decent amount, feeding off the crowd, to keep it closer than it maybe should be until Kansas ultimately pulls away.
Kansas 74, Oklahoma State 65
Record ATS: 8-8
Record Straight Up: 14-2
(Last game: Kansas 78, Oklahoma 66)
