Cincinnati vs Kansas Big 12 Tournament Preview
The Kansas Jayhawks’ two All-Americans won’t be taking the court for the Big 12 Tournament in Kansas City this week as Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar are trying to get healthy for next week’s start to the NCAA Tournament. That means the lineup will look a bit different when Kansas faces the Cincinnati Bearcats on Wednesday night.
Opponent Overview
Team: Cincinnati
Record: 19-13
KenPom: 42
Line: Cincinnati -1
Team Form
Cincinnati almost didn’t make it to Wednesday after trailing by as many as 16 against West Virginia in the opening round of the tournament on Tuesday. But the Bearcats rallied and dropped 90 points in large part due to shooting 16-38 from three. Cincinnati has now won two straight (both against WVU) and three of four, with the lone loss being in overtime on the road against Oklahoma.
Players to Watch
Given what took place on Tuesday, we have to start with Simas Lukosius and Day Day Thomas. The duo dropped 31 and 29 respectively while shooting a combined 14-22 from three (both made seven). For Thomas, this was an especially big surprise as he shoots just 27% on the year. Lukosius also went 8-8 from the free-throw line.
This was a big jump in offensive production for Thomas, who has only scored in double figures in one of the past four games. It was also just the third 20-point game of the season and his highest total of the season. For Lukosius, he had scored in double figures in seven of his last eight, but this was the first time he had broken the 20-point mark, let alone 30.
The Bearcats have also been shorthanded of late. Big man Viktor Lakhin has missed the past three games with an ankle injury. If he can’t go against KU, it’s significant considering he’s 6-11 and grabbed four offensive rebounds (while scoring seven points) against Kansas the first time around. And guard CJ Fredrick hasn’t played since Oklahoma State on February 21 due to a hamstring injury.
Matchups to Watch
The biggest challenge for the Jayhawks with Dickinson out is their ability to rebound. Cincinnati is the best offensive rebounding team in the Big 12, grabbing 36.7% of its misses. It is also good at keeping opponents off the glass. The benefit is that Cincinnati doesn’t shoot well from two, but KU still can’t give them multiple changes on possessions often.
Despite the great rebounding, the Bearcats’ offense has been at the bottom of the conference. A big reason is that they have shot just 29.6% from three this conference season, which makes the 42% against West Virginia an outlier. It was the first time in Big 12 play that UC made more than nine threes in a game. They haven’t been much better from inside the arc either. On defense, Cincinnati does a good job defending the paint but is susceptible from three. So with the small-ball Kansas lineup, it actually might work for Kansas to take more shots from deep and stretch the Bearcats’ defense.
The X-factor is turnovers and transition opportunities. Cinci turned it over nearly 20% of the time in Big 12 play, which means if KU can get steals and score in transition, it will have a much better shot than relying solely on the half-court game. One other potential benefit? Cincinnati doesn’t get to the line very often, and the Jayhawks need to keep it that way with such a short bench.
Prediction
It looks like Kansas will go with KJ Adams at the five, Johnny Furphy at the four, and then likely Elmarko Jackson at the two and Nick Timberlake at the three. The pro is this is a fast and athletic lineup. The con is rebounding and a giant question mark on whether Kansas can score enough. Furphy will have to step up with a bigger role and Dajuan Harris will be key in opening up opportunities.
The fact that this is the Bearcats’ second game in two days and they just came off an outlier shooting game means they will likely come back down to earth. Thomas, Lukosius, and leading scorer Dan Skillings all played 37 minutes and will have more tired legs. And it’s not like Cinci could coast on Tuesday. It had to work hard to erase a big WVU lead and claw back.
I don’t know how far Kansas will last this week – Self is rightly prioritizing next week – but I do think the Jayhawks win here and advance to face Baylor.
Kansas 70, Cincinnati 67
Record ATS: 14-16
Record Straight Up: 23-7
(Last game: Houston 76, Kansas 46)
