Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas Jayhawks: Preview & Players to Watch
The first time Kansas faced Oklahoma this year, in Norman on January 18th, it was exactly the type of game that's become frustratingly common for this Jayhawks squad. Kansas led for much of the first half, and pushed the lead to 12 a few minutes into the second. It looked like the better team was establishing a comfortable lead they could carry through the rest of the game, but KU has largely been unable to maintain these types of leads, and OU had the lead back before the under-12 media timeout. The Jayhawks pulled that one out, 67-64, but it would certainly be nice to see them come up with another victory where fans are sweating bullets for the last few minutes.
That loss dropped the Sooners to 2-4 in Big 12 play, and things have only gone downhill for them from there. They sit at 14-10 overall and just 4-7 in league play. They've won just two of their last nine, but it's worth mentioning that on Wednesday, they were able to knock off Texas Tech with relative ease, 70-55. That helped KU with the Big 12 title race, but also served as a reminder that this team, like everyone else in the conference, can be a really tough opponent any given day.
Quick Profile
Oklahoma fits the overall profile of the Big 12 this year (seemingly for everyone but Kansas), by playing very good defense, while dealing with some offensive flaws. The good news is that their defense isn't on the level of teams like Tech, Baylor, Texas, or Iowa State, ranking 29th in KenPom's defensive efficiency. While they are good at forcing turnovers, they aren't elite, and sit at 5th in league play in defensive turnover rate. That means a little less pressure for a KU team that, barring a big surprise, will not have their point guard in Remy Martin. Oklahoma does crash the defensive boards pretty hard, but their defense overall is definitely looking a bit more pedestrian (by Big 12 standards) since conference play began. They haven't really been elite at any one thing, and while 3 point luck helped them out a lot early (opponents hit just 29.8% of their threes against OU for the year), their "3 point defense" has taken a big hit against conference foes, who are making them at a 33.5% clip that ranks just 8th in the league.
Offensively, the Sooners have been the 6th most efficient team in the Big 12 so far. They hang their hat on getting easy buckets around the basket and rank 2nd in the conference in 2 point shooting at 54.7%. They made over half their twos when these teams faced off in Norman, and making those shots tougher to come by will be vital if Kansas wants to really lock this team down. Oklahoma isn't afraid to let it fly from three when needed, with nearly 41% of their shots coming from behind the arc this year, but they're pretty mediocre in terms of converting those attempts, at just 33.5%. They're a poor rebounding team on the offensive end, and for a team that likes shots close to the basket, they don't get to the line all that much. And while Kansas has been dreadful at forcing turnovers since conference play began, that is a major weakness for Oklahoma, who's turning it over nearly a quarter of the time. Bill Self does not appreciate his players gambling defensively, but this may be one where it's worth it to have the Jayhawks aggressively looking to capitalize on bad passes or poor ball handling, and try to use it to create transition scoring opportunities.
Players to Watch
Tanner Groves, 6'10 senior center
We went over Groves in detail the first time around, but in case you forgot, he's the big white dude who scorched the nets for Eastern Washington in KU's first round Tournament game last year. He's the highest usage player on the team and overall has been a very effective transfer for OU, but his numbers have taken a hit in many categories since Big 12 play started. That said, he's still been effective on both the offensive and defensive glass, while ranking 6th in the Big 12 by hitting 61.7% of his twos. His three point shooting has really fallen off though, having attempted only 24 in ten Big 12 games, and making just seven (29%). The Jayhawks held him to just eight points on 13 shots in their first matchup, and will no doubt try to keep him in check again, since he's arguably their best offensive player.
Jordan Goldwire, 6'3 senior point guard
Goldwire led the Sooners in scoring in the first matchup, putting up 15 points. The Duke transfer generated quite a few assists this year, but that's definitely taken a hit in league play, with his assist rate down 19.2%. Where he can really give KU problems though, is defending the perimeter. He's one of the better steal artists in the conference, and got three of them against the Jayhawks in January.
Umoja Gibson, 6'1 senior guard
Fortunately, at 6'1, Gibson won't give the Jayhawks' vertically challenged backcourt any size mismatches. Unfortunately, he's always willing to let it fly from deep, attempting 161 threes already this year, and still hitting 38.5% despite the volume. He didn't really get things going in game one, scoring just 11, and going 2-5 from both two and three, and contributing little elsewhere. Still, he's coming off a 30 point explosion against Tech, in which he went 8-11 from deep. He generates some steals as well, so if his hot hand carries over to Saturday, he could cause issues for Kansas on both ends of the court.
Prediction
Despite snatching defeat from the jaws of victory late against Texas, it feels like this KU team is starting to play better, more complete basketball of late. And the blowout of Texas Tech aside, Oklahoma has not been headed in the right direction. If Gibson and/or Groves go off from three point range, this could be anyone's game. Outside of that though, Kansas should have a definite advantage here. OU hasn't been playing the type of offense that can really hurt the Jayhawks (again, absent a lights out shooting performance). The Jayhawks have an opportunity to really hit the offensive boards, and take advantage of a Sooners team with little rim protection, and poor two point defense in conference play. I'm not typically overconfident when it comes to this sort of thing, but I really think the Jayhawks could cruise to victory here, especially coming off four full days of rest after the quick Big Monday turnaround. Kansas 80, Oklahoma 68
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