Kansas Jayhawks at Texas Longhorns: Preview and Players to Watch
The Jayhawks' first experience with the Texas Longhorns this season comes on Big Monday, just two days after a huge blowout victory over Baylor. Texas hasn't made quite as many headlines this year as might be expected, given their high profile hiring of Texas Tech's Chris Beard in the offseason. Texas hasn't been bad (quite the opposite, they're 14th in KenPom's rankings), but they're 17-6 overall, and just 5-4 in league play. This is a game where casual fans might look at the teams' records and AP rankings, where Texas will likely barely hold onto a spot in the top 25 when announced Monday, and feel like Kansas should be a distinct favorite. Make no mistake: this is a going to be a tough game, and one where KenPom actually gives Texas a one point advantage.
Looking deeper at the Longhorns, they're what you expect from a Chris Beard team. KenPom ranks them 9th nationally in defensive efficiency (yes, another Big 12 opponent that plays stifling defense...this theme isn't going away any time soon). They are not as strong offensively, where they rank 41st. For the season, they're elite at forcing turnovers, but that's taken a hit in conference play, where their TO% is four points lower than the season overall, and they sit at 6th in the Big 12. They're still going guard tightly all over the half court offense and limit easy shots. Their primary defensive weakness is fouling too much. They allow the highest free throw rate in the conference and are 206th nationally. Even though Texas will play tough, physical defense, the Jayhawks shouldn't shy away from attacking, because the Longhorns will hack and reach at times.
Offensively, Texas has had some trouble making shots in Big 12 play. They are making just 32.4% of their threes, and less than half their twos. Their offensive rebounding is middle of the pack in the conference, but still one of the better teams on the offensive glass nationally. They have a healthy mix of shooters and slashers, and just about everyone is willing to step out to the three point line.
Players to Watch
Timmy Allen, 6'6 senior forward
Allen is one of the few Longhorns who doesn't shoot the three, but leads the team in scoring nonetheless. He hits 54% of his twos, and is the best on the team at getting to the line, where he shoots a respectable 71%. Despite standing 6'6, he's a solid rebounder on both ends, and has a high assist rate for his position. Defensively, he'll generate steals, making him a threat on both ends.
Andrew Jones, 6'4 senior wing
Jones is back as a super senior, and thankfully has recovered from a frightening cancer diagnosis that cut his 2019 season short. Jones is 3rd on the team in scoring, but some of that is based on volume. He's taken a team-high 104 shots from three, but hit less than a third of them. He is, however, hitting 54.5% from two, and leads the team in steal rate while rarely turning the ball over himself.
Tre Mitchell, 6'9 junior forward
Mitchell could be considered the team's center, to the extent that they have a true five. However, he plays more like a stretch four. He'll shoot about two threes per game, and has hit a respectable 35%. He's a decent (not great for his height and position) rebounder on both ends, and is a very solid rim protector in the paint. He's adept at scoring around the basket and has the highest usage rate on the team.
Prediction
Again, just a glance at the teams' resumes may give the impression that Kansas is the much better squad, but Texas is a very good team. This is a road matchup just two days after what was likely Kansas' best performance this year. KU will be flying high after the Baylor win, but this feels like it has letdown written all over it. Kentucky was the first game this year where I picked Kansas to lose, and I'm hoping this time they do a better job of proving me wrong. I'm impressed with what the Jayhawks have done in the two games since the Kentucky disaster, but I'll need to see more before I believe it's going to continue. Texas 74, Kansas 70
