Kansas vs Arkansas NCAA Tournament Basketball Preview: Tempo and Fouls Could Decide the Game
After a rough start, Kansas put it together at the end of the first half and outscored Howard by 15 in the second half of its first-round game. Now it gets eighth-seeded Arkansas with a Sweet 16 berth on the line. And also maybe the chance to get revenge on behalf of the football team for that Liberty Bowl loss?
Opponent Overview
Team: Arkansas
Record: 21-13
KenPom: 19
Line: KU -3.5
Team Form
The Razorbacks didn’t exactly fly into the NCAA Tournament on a high note. Arkansas lost the final three games of the regular season – albeit to Alabama, Tennessee, and Kentucky – and five of their last seven. Then, Arkansas started the SEC Tournament with a three-point win over Auburn, but lost to Texas A&M by six in the next round.
The Razorbacks were in control for most of the first-round game against Illinois, leading by 10 at halftime and keeping the Illini at arms’ length the rest of the game. But it didn’t shoot lights out in the win. Arkansas shot just 40% from two and 27% from three, but did get to the line 29 times and hit 22 of them.
Players to Watch
Nick Smith is going to be a lottery pick in the upcoming NBA draft, but he’s missed a lot of the season with a knee injury. When he came back in the middle of February, it was thought that he would turn Arkansas’ season around, but the Razorbacks are just 4-6 since his return. He is averaging 14 points per game on the season, though by shooting just 40% from two and 33% from three.
Anthony Black is another Arkansas freshman projected to go high in the NBA draft and he’s averaging 12.8 points, 5.1 rebounds, and a team-high 4.2 assists per game. Black is not much of a three-point threat – he shoots just 30%, this will be a theme – but he does draw fouls and get to the free-throw line often.
But Arkansas’ best player this season has been Ricky Council. The junior is averaging 15.9 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.3 assists. He’s also not a threat from deep, but he’s even better at getting to the line. Council has been to the line nearly 200 times this season, including 11-12 against Illinois. He led the Razorbacks with 18 points and 10 rebounds in round one.
Matchups to Watch
You’re not going to see the five-man sub rotations that Howard did on Thursday. That’s because, like Kansas, Arkansas does not have a deep bench. The Razorbacks are 293rd nationally in bench minutes (KU is 361st). And that’s going to be key in a couple of areas.
Given the section above, I think you know where this is starting. Arkansas is great at getting free points at the line, shooting free throws at a top-25 clip nationally. This is equally big given Kansas’ reliance on its starters. The silver lining is that the Razorbacks only shoot 69% from the line, which is 282nd nationally. They also foul a lot themselves nearly as much as they draw foul. This game could come down to the charity stripe.
Another factor that is interesting with both teams’ lack of depth is the tempo. Like Howard, Arkansas likes to play fast and run in transition. And when they do, they attack the rim. Tired legs could play a factor in the second half.
Where Howard and Arkansas are different is the Razorbacks are not good three-point shooters and don’t even attempt them very much. The team shoots just 31.6% from deep and are 348th in threes attempted per game. But it is good at defending the three, and really defending everywhere. Arkansas’ length and athleticism shows up on the defensive end as they are in the top 25 in block and steal percentage, while protecting the rim well.
Prediction
Kansas is going to have to work for its Sweet 16 appearance. The Razorbacks are a tall, fast team, so the Jayhawks probably won’t be able to play above the rim as well as it did in round one.
But where Kansas can still execute well is in crashing the offensive boards, as Arkansas is not a great defensive rebounding team. If KU can also take care of the ball like it has much of the year, that will limit Arkansas’ transition opportunities.
Arkansas’ ceiling is higher than an eight seed, but the Razorbacks are on the eight line for a reason. That’s why I like Kansas’ winning mentality (17 Q1 wins means they’re used to teams like this) and experience, while Arkansas is relying heavily on freshmen who haven’t been in this spot before.
I’ll take Kansas to advance to the second week after a close, hard-fought battle.
Kansas 71, Arkansas 67
Prediction record
19-13-1 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 84-61 KU | Actual: 96-68 KU
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