One Final Look at Louisville Baseball's 2024 NCAA Tournament Resume and Projection

Selection Monday is finally here, so we’re taking one last look at the Cardinals’ standing for the Big Dance.

Louisville baseball infielder Alex Alicea (0) / Jared Anderson - Louisville Report

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At long last, we have finally reached Selection Monday. After a couple days of nervous waiting following their pool play exit from the ACC Baseball Championship, Louisville will finally learn their NCAA Tournament fate.

Sporting an overall record of 32-24, the Cardinals are not exactly a stone cold lock to crack the field of 64. The question is, have they done enough to snag an at-large bid? Or have they done too much damage and seen their bubble burst?

Let's take one final look at their NCAA Tournament resume, which you can view here.

For those unfamiliar, tournament resumes are separated into quadrants, with Quadrant 1 being the best and Quadrant 4 being the worst. Quadrants are classified based on the opponent's RPI ranking. Just like the NET in college basketball, location of the game is taken into account as well.

First, let's start with what could get them in. While their 16-14 record in regular season conference play might not seem overly impressive, it's better than one would think.

Unofficially, .500 and above in conference play for ACC teams has been a good benchmark in the past for ACC teams to shoot for if they are to get an at-large bid. Not to mention that three of their ACC series wins were sweeps - including one against NC State, who is a projected national seed.

Unfortunately, there isn't much else that Louisville has working in their favor.

Typically in the past if you're a team on the bubble, you want an RPI of at least 40 or better to be seriously considered to make the field. Louisville's RPI heading into the selection show is 60th.

This ranking is mostly a product of not taking advantage of Quad 1 opportunities, considering Louisville is only 7-15 in such games. Additionally, their non-conference slate was incredibly weak, ranking 227th nationally. The Cardinals had just six Quad 1 and 2 non-con games, and they didn't win a single one.

Put it all together, and Louisville is not a trendy national pick to make the NCAA Tournament. In the most recently Field of 64 projections from Baseball America and D1Baseball, the Cardinals are nowhere to be found.

When 12:00 p.m. EST rolls around, and the field of 64 is revealed on ESPN2, fans need to be prepared for the very real possibility that Louisville will miss their third NCAA Tournament in the last four years.

(Photo of Alex Alicea: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)

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