Breaking Down Louisville's NCAA Tournament Standing Entering the ACC Tournament

(Photo of Louisville Players: Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC)

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Following an abnormal 2020-21 college basketball season, we are now less than a week away from Selection Sunday, where the NCAA's 10-member selection committee will determine the field for the Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.

With an 13-6 overall record, along with an 8-5 mark in the Atlantic Coast Conference that earned them a No. 7 seed for the league's tournament, Louisville is not exactly in a comfortable spot.

Using BracketMatrix, a website which determines the average seed from over 130 expert 'bracketologists', the Cardinals are projected as a No. 10 seed, and are dangerously approaching 'bubble' territory.

In fact, according to ESPN's Joe Lunardi, he has 'Louisville listed among the 'Last Four Byes' as of Mar. 7, They are also ranked No. 51 in the NET, or NCAA Evaluation Tool, a metric that the committee uses in part when determining the tournament field.

But the NET is only one factor. What really matters is Louisville's overall tournament resume. Thanks to WarrenNolan, we can take a look at the "Team Sheet" at which the selection committee uses for program resumes.

For those unfamiliar, tournament resumes are separated into quadrants, with Quadrant 1 being the best and Quadrant 4 being the worst. Quadrants are classified based on the opponent's NET ranking as well as the location of the game. For example, wins against a No. 30 team at home and a No. 75 team on the road are both Quadrant 1 wins.

Louisville only has one certifiably bad loss down at Miami, as it classifies as Quadrant 3. But on the other hand, the Cardinals are lacking in marquee wins. They are 1-5 in Quadrant 1, with their lone Q1 win coming against Duke on the road back on Feb. 27. A potential saving grace could be that they are 6-0 in Quadrant 2.

Now, let's take a look at the ways the Cards' trip to Greensboro, NC for the ACC Tournament can shake out, and how it will effect their NCAA Tournament draw.

Louisville is primed to face either Duke or Boston College to start postseason play. A win here wouldn't really add much stock to their tournament standing, except maybe get them off the bubble, and a loss could have disastrous ramifications.

The Blue Devils currently have a NET rating of 59, with the Eagles much lower at 160. Defeating Duke has the possibility of bumping their road win against them down to Quadrant 2, and beating Boston College would only be a Quadrant 3 win. Losing to Duke here could send them to 'Last Four In" territory, and a loss to Boston College could knock them out entirely.

Where they can really start to build stock is in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, where they would face Florida State should they win their first game. The Seminoles would be a Quadrant 1 win with a NET of 22, but Louisville did fall 78-65 against them at home back on Jan. 18, so it would be a tough ask.

Should they make it to the semifinals, they would most likely face either Virginia Tech (NET 43) or North Carolina (NET 39), both falling under Q1. The more favorable matchup would come against the Hokies, as the Cardinals won 73-71 against them back on Jan. 6. Louisville fell 99-54 at North Carolina on Feb. 20, but that was coming off of a COVID pause.

If Louisville somehow does make it to the title game, that would most likely come against Virginia (NET 13), who has downed the Cardinals in 12 of their 14 matchups since Louisville joined the ACC.

In summation, here is how Louisville's NCAA seed could potentially break down based on their perform in the ACC Tournament:

No. 11 seed/out:

Loss vs. BC

No. 10 seed:

Loss vs. Duke
Win vs. Duke & loss vs. FSU

No. 9 seed:

Win in second round, vs. FSU & non-Q1 loss in semis
Win in second round, vs. FSU & non-Q1 win in semis, loss in championship game

No. 8 seed:

Win in second round, vs. FSU & Q1 win in semis, non-Q1 loss in championship game

No. 7 seed:

Win in second round, vs. FSU & Q1 win in semis, non-Q1 win in championship game
Win in second round, vs. FSU & Q1 win in semis, Q1 win or loss in championship game

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