What are Louisville's Chances of Landing Marcus Carr?
(Photo of Marcus Carr: Aaron Doster - USA TODAY Sports
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The transfer market has been relatively quiet in recent weeks for the Louisville men's basketball program, but Monday saw a massive development on that front. Former Minnesota guard Marcus Carr had trimmed his list of destinations he was 'considering' to four schools, with one of whom being the Cardinals.
This would be a tremendous get for head coach Chris Mack and his staff. The 6-foot-2, 195-pound point guard was one of the top players in the Big Ten last season, averaging 19.4 points, 4.9 assists, 4.0 rebounds and 1.3 steals per game. He simultaneously declared for the 2021 NBA Draft and entered the transfer portal after the end of the season, but withdrew from the draft process last week.
While Louisville has to feel good about getting to this point in the recruitment, they're up against some stiff competition for his services. Kansas, Kentucky and Texas are the three schools that round out his list of top schools to play his final year of college ball.
It's an impressive list of schools to chose from, no doubt. But when you look at it from a roster and scholarship perspective, what is the likelihood that Louisville is the school that lands Carr? Let's break down each situation:
We'll start with Kansas. They actually have the opposite problem that Louisville does, in that their backcourt is much deeper than their front court. As of July 5, the Jayhawks have six guards on their 2021-22 roster, including starter Christian Braun and sixth man Dajuan Harris. Depending on if Ochai Agbaji or Remy Martin decide to withdraw from the 2021 NBA Draft process, their backcourt could be even more crowded.
As bad as Kentucky was last season, they should return to form next season, partly because of how deep they are at the point guard position. Davion Mintz withdrew his name from the NBA Draft process, Sahvir Wheeler is transferring in from Georgia, and top-15 recruit TyTy Washington is joining the fold. While their backcourt as a whole isn't as deep as Kansas', there are a lot more primary ball handlers with the Wildcats.
Texas is where things start to get a little interesting. They are losing starter Matt Coleman to the NBA, but are retaining both Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones, two of their three leading scorers. Transfer Devin Askew and sharpshooter Jase Febres will give the Longhorns some depth in the backcourt, but their strength, at least from a roster perspective, is on the wing and in the paint.
Now we have Louisville. The Cardinals lost both starters in the backcourt in Carlik Jones and David Johnson to the NBA, but added presumed starters Jarrod West and Noah Locke via the transfer market. JUCO signee El Ellis will fight for some minutes as the primary ball handler, and Locke will be more than just a spot up shooter like he was at Florida. Dre Davis and Michael James will play some minutes at the two spot at times, but their size will see them out on the wing more often than not.
Looking at all four schools in the running, two schools seem to have less of a shot than the others. Kentucky is stacked at the point guard spot, and Kansas seems unlikely if both Agbaji and Martin withdraw from the draft.
It seems that the most likely destination spot is either Texas or Louisville. The Longhorns do seem to have their starting backcourt in place, but not a lot of depth behind them. The Cardinals have been looking to add another playmaking guard through the portal to build depth, but do already have three guys who can be primary ball handlers.
From an outside perspective based purely on the roster makeup of each school, Louisville and Texas have to feel good about their chances. While Carr said it's a four-horse race, the Cards and Horns will be the ones fighting for a photo finish.
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