Kenny Payne, Louisville Entering Critical Offseason for Long-Term Future
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - When Kenny Payne first took the head coaching job at Louisville, there were several messages that he relayed to the crowd during his introductory press conference back on Mar. 18, 2022. Whether he said it outright or you had to read between the lines to understand it, he was very deliberate in what he had to say that day.
One such message relayed by Payne was that his first year at the helm was likely not going to yield a super successful team. He didn't outright say that the Cardinals were going to be terrible in year one, but instead he referenced how he was going to need help from every corner of the fan base to get UofL back to where it once was. In fact, this was a message that he reiterated multiple times throughout the offseason and preseason.
Nearly 12 months later, it's hard to imagine that Payne thought Louisville would be *this* bad. Following an uninspiring 80-62 loss to Boston College in the opening round of the ACC Tournament, the Cardinals' first season under Payne is now in the books. Unfortunately, it leaves a lot more questions now than we had this time last year.
There's no need to rehash every gory detail from the season, but some proper context is required here. Finishing at 4-28 overall, Louisville blew their record for most losses in a single season out of the water, a mark previously held by the 1997-98 team that went 12-20. 19 of those losses were be double digits, with nine coming by 20 points or more. For the first time since 1939-40, they won zero road game. With a KenPom ranking of 293rd, it nearly beat 2011-12 Utah for the worst ever by a Power Five team at 302nd, and there was a brief point in the season where they were worse than that.
It was by far the worst Louisville team of the modern era. For all intents and purposes, it was the worst team to ever don the red and black in the 109-year history of the program. Because of that Payne is entering a critical offseason for not only himself and his time at Louisville, but one for the long-term health and relevancy of program itself.
When he was hired, Payne was billed as this elite recruiter who could bring in the best of the best to Louisville. Given his track record as an assistant coach at Kentucky, playing a significant role in helping bring 40 composite five-stars to the Wildcats in his 10 seasons in Lexington, this was of the top reasons for hiring Payne.
His first offseason at the helm didn't exactly yield the kind of players many fans were hoping for. Payne missed out on several high profile D1 transfer prospects such Emoni Bates, Tyrese Hunter, Malachi Smith, Isaiah Mosley and Sean McNeil. The inability to land impactful and experienced guards played a massive role in Louisville's ghastly season.
He was able to get former-five star forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield from Tennessee, but he was the only noteworthy acquisition by Louisville this offseason outside of true freshman forward Kamari Lands, who originally committed to Chris Mack.
Hercy Miller, who originally came on as a walk-on guard before getting put on scholarship for this year, had to be relied on at times to take the pressure off of leading-scorer El Ellis. Devin Ree was a four-star forward coming out of high school, but barely saw the floor at all in 2022-23. Guard Fabio Basili was unranked at the time he committed to the Cardinals, has proved to be an extremely raw prospect, and has even had a questionable work ethic at times.
Even for the Class of 2023, Payne's first full recruiting cycle at Louisville, he has had his fair share of misses. He was able to convince four-star forward Kaleb Glenn to stay committed, and did land another four-star forward in Curtis Williams Jr., but missed on top targets like D.J. Wagner, Aaron Bradshaw, A.J. Johnson, George Washington III and others.
That all being said, Payne has a very good excuse for underwhelming recruiting in the first offseason: The NCAA/IARP infractions case. Like it or not, the lingering "black cloud" hanging over the program - which made people question if UofL would get hammered or not - did have an immense impact on Payne's ability to bring in any player worth their salt to Louisville. Considering it got resolved just before the season started, I'm not going to hold it against Payne for not recruiting up to what many expected he would.
Now the season is over, and Payne has no NCAA restrictions when it comes to recruiting. Last season, you could make an excuse as to why he could not bring in any players, whether that be via the transfer portal or from the high school. Now, given what he has shown in his past coupled with his renewed and softened stance on N.I.L., Payne absolutely has to not only kill it in the transfer portal when it opens up on the Monday after Selection Sunday, but has to land some of Louisville's top targets in the Class of 2024.
Recruiting isn't the only aspect of roster management where Payne must excel between now and the 2023-24 season opener in November. All season long, effort and energy has been one of the biggest issues - among several others - plaguing the Cardinals. There were far too many times this year, especially in the least few games of the season, where several players simply looked like they would rather be anywhere else.
Payne has made mention several times this season that he wants his players to understand what it is like to play in a Louisville jersey, and understand the sacrifice that comes with it. If he is committed to this notion, he needs to have uncomfortable conversations with several current players on the roster. I'm not going to single any players out by name, but anyone who has watched this team knows who I am talking about.
Players aren't only pieces to the puzzle that he needs to evaluate. After a season like this one, Payne has to take a step back and seriously contemplate who amongst his coaching and support staff should return. However, this seems unlikely, as Payne defended his staff vehemently in the post-game press conference following the Boston College loss.
Payne himself is not immune to criticism and evaluation, even though some segments of the fanbase would tell you otherwise. We all knew this would be a high-risk/high-reward hire considering he had never been a head coach before, but if you ask me, his baseline coaching acumen was much lower than I expected it to.
Too many times this season, it seemed like Payne was simply standing on the sidelines not yelling as many instructions as the opposing coach was, or relying too much on his assistants to do something. Too many times did Louisville have zero situational awareness. Too many times did Louisville turn the ball over out of timeouts. Too many times did Louisville just seemingly roll the ball out and see what happens as opposed to running plays to get something going.
I will admit, some of this does fall back on the players and their lack of energy and incredibly low collective basketball IQ. But Payne's actual in-game coaching ability does leave some (a lot) to be desired. Over this offseason, he needs to take an extended look at his approach to game management. His desired scheme of having a free-flowing offense isn't necessarily bad, and having elite talent certainly makes that more efficient, but he needs to make multiple tweaks to his overall approach to in-game coaching.
As many have stated multiple times this season: when you go 4-28, it's not one person's fault. It's the head coach, it's the players, it's the assistant coaches, it's probably even the support staff to an extent. But one man has the power to influence everything that goes on within the basketball program.
From recruiting, to roster and staff management, to improving his own ability to actually coach the game of basketball, Payne needs to make major strides in all facets. He's not getting fired now, but if Louisville has another single-digit win season (or something comparable) in 2023-24, not only is he going to likely get fired, but a once proud program will continue a free fall into obscurity.
Spanning back to the 2021-22 season, Louisville has won just seven of their last 46 games. The Cardinals haven't been to the NCAA Tournament since 2019, and haven't won a game in the Big Dance since 2017. For a program that has three national titles and is a unanimous top-ten all-time program in the sport, Louisville men's basketball isn't far from being in the same space as Texas or Nebraska football. This also comes at a time where fan apathy has never been higher.
It's extremely possible for a coach to flip a team in just a single offseason. Over the past couple years, Iowa State's T.J. Otzelberger, Indiana's Mike Woodson and Missouri's Dennis Gates are a few guys who have orchestrated incredible turnarounds over the course of one offseason.
For all parties' sakes, Payne needs to get Louisville back to - at a minimum - competing for an NCAA Tournament bid next season. If not, it could spell doom for both.
(Photo of Kenny Payne: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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