Points of Emphasis: Louisville vs. Bellarmine
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At long last, the 2022-23 college basketball season is finally here, and game day for the Louisville men's basketball program is upon us. The Cardinals' first test of the Kenny Payne era comes in the form of the Bellarmine Knights. Tipoff is scheduled for Wednesday, Nov. 9th at 9:00pm EST.
Here are a couple of the more significant storylines to follow ahead of Louisville's season-opener with Bellarmine:
New Faces Aplenty
As people know by now, Louisville looks radically different than they did at this point last year. Between the coaching staff and the player roster, the newcomers far outweigh the returners.
Back in January, the university and head coach Chris Mack mutually parted ways, later hiring UofL alum and former Kentucky assistant coach Kenny Payne as their next head coach. Out went assistant coaches Mike Pegues, Ross McMains and Kahlil Fennell, and in came Danny Manning, Nolan Smith and Josh Jamieson to replace them.
Just like the offseason before, the actual roster itself saw a ton of upheaval. Of the 14 scholarship players on Louisville's roster last season, only six of them returned. In total, Louisville lost 67.9 percent of their scoring output, 62.6 percent of their rebounding production and 76.7 percent of their assists.
Of course, that's not to say there isn't talent amongst the returners. Guard El Ellis, whose 8.7 points per game ranked third on the team and had a team-best 36.0 three-point shooting percentage, is back. Forward Sydney Curry, who averaged 17.6 points and 9.0 rebounds in his last five games while shooting 64.4 percent from the field, is also back.
Wing Mike James, forwards Jae'Lyn Withers and J.J. Traynor, as well as forward/center Roosevelt Wheeler, also return.
While Payne did have some misses in the transfer portal during his first few months on the job, he did manage to land former five-star prospect and Tennessee forward Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, as well as former Tennessee State and Xavier guard Hercy Miller. Out of high school, the Cardinals bring in highly-ranked forward Kamari Lands, as well as wing Devin Ree and guard Fabio Basili.
Preseason Struggles
With a new regime in charge, sporting a roster that only has six returners from a team that went just 13-19 the year before, Louisville struggled a bit in their two preseason exhibition games against Division II foes. They outright lost to Lenoir-Rhyne 57-47, then had to rally past and hold off Chaminade 80-73.
As you can imagine, the Cardinals didn't play the prettiest basketball in either game. Payne envisions his offense to be free-flowing and pass happy, but Louisville had just 15 assists to 30 turnovers and shot 34.6 percent from the field over the two exhibitions. He also wants his team to be defensive-minded, but struggled in their rotations, which allowed a combined 62 points in the paint against much smaller competition.
Fortunately, it wasn't all bad during exhibition play. Withers scored 37 total points and snagged 10 total rebounds, while also shooting a combined 9-of-17 from the field and 7-of-11 on three-point attempts. Ellis had a six-assist game vs. Lenoir-Rhyne, then followed that up with 28 points against Chaminade. Guys like Lands and James also showed flashes on both ends, which could make way for larger roles during the season
Out With The Old Guard
Despite being ineligible for the 2022 NCAA Tournament and NIT due to their transitionary period to Division I, that didn't stop Bellarmine in their quest to blaze through the Atlantic Sun. In fact, the Knights went 11-5 during conference play in the regular season and 17-13 overall. Claiming a No. 2 seed in the conference tournament, they proceeded to go 3-0 and claim the ASUN Championship.
However, a lot of Bellarmine's top production from that squad has moved on. Guard Dylan Penn entered the transfer portal and wound up at Vermont, while guard C.J. Fleming and forward Ethan Claycomb both graduated. The trio consisted of the Knights' three top scorers, and they alone combined for 56.1 percent of Bellarmine's scoring.
That being said, the Knights don't have an empty cupboard. Guard Juston Betz and forward Curt Hopf, both of whom were regular starters last year, are both back. Betz poured in 7.0 points and 7.1 rebounds per game, while Hopf's 7.0 points and 4.5 rebounds per game earned his ASUN All-Freshman Team honors. Both shot over 53.0 percent, as well.
The rest of Bellarmine's starting five will likely go to guards Peter Suder, Garrett Tipton and Bash Wieland, and all three looked good in the Knights' lone exhibition against Centre College. In fact, the trio combined to shoot 18-of-33 for 40 point in their 71-34 win.
Offensive-Minded Approach
Normally, teams making the jump from Division II to Division I struggle in their first couple years during the transition, but not Bellarmine. During the first two years of their four-year transitionary phase, head coach Scott Davenport has guided the Knights to a 34-21 record, including 21-8 in conference play.
Most of this has been due to Bellarmine's offensive efficiency. According to KenPom, the Knights ranked 78th in offensive efficiency during the 2020-21 season, and were 81st last season.
In fact, their 53.3 effective field goal percentage during the 2021-22 season ranked 38th, while their turnover percentage of 15.0 percent was just 18th. They also ranked in the top 100 (reminder, out of a then-358 D1 teams) in offensive block percentage, steal percentage and non-steal turnover percentage.
Conversely, the Knights haven't exactly had the most stellar defense during their transition. Their KenPom defensive efficiency last season came in at 312th in D1, allowing their opponents to post an effective field goal percentage of 54.4, which ranked 337th.
This was mainly due to their inability to guard the perimeter or prevent open looks. Their opponents connected on only 35.0 percent of their three-point attempts, which was just 256th in D1, but 47.1 percent of their opponents' total shot attempts came from the beyond the arc. This resulted in 38.0 percent of points scored against Bellarmine coming via the three-ball, which was the 18th-highest mark in D1.
(Photo of El Ellis: Jared Anderson - Louisville Report)
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