Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Pitt
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-3, 1-3 ACC) is set to face Pitt (4-2, 1-1 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 22 at 8:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Panthers:
- Rankings:
| Pitt | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | NR/RV | NR/NR |
SOS | 54th | 58th |
SP+ | 39th | 58th |
FPI | 43rd | 39th |
Sagarin | 48th | 46th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Pitt | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 52nd (430.5) | 42nd (437.2) |
Scoring Offense | 34th (35.0) | 77th (27.7) |
Passing Yards | 70th (237.5) | 79th (230.0) |
Yards Per Completion | 42nd (13.07) | 51st (12.78) |
Rushing Yards | 32nd (193.0) | 23rd (207.2) |
First Downs Gained | 73rd (138) | 78th (134) |
3rd Down Con. % | 70th (39.5%) | 65th (39.8%) |
4th Down Con. % | 63rd (50.0%) | 109th (37.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 79th (81.8%) | 63rd (84.0%) |
Turnovers Lost | 35th (8) | 85th (11) |
Interceptions Thrown | 17th (3) | 66th (5) |
Fumbles Lost | 79th (5) | 101st (6) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 104th (6.50) | 42nd (4.67) |
Sacks Allowed | 80th (2.17) | 61st (1.83) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 10th (33:46) | 41st (31:17) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Pitt | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 27th (337.2) | 52nd (361.3) |
Scoring Defense | 66th (26.2) | 41st (22.3) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 41st (211.8) | 62nd (227.5) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 43rd (125.3) | 53rd (133.8) |
First Downs Allowed | 21st (107) | 22nd (108) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 34th (33.7%) | 32nd (33.3%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 86th (57.1%) | 8th (22.2%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 98th (88.0%) | 7th (68.2%) |
Turnovers Gained | 73rd (9) | 28th (12) |
Interceptions Caught | 64th (5) | 18th (8) |
Fumbles Recovered | 59th (4) | 59th (4) |
Sacks Per Game | 12th (3.17) | |
TFL Per Game | 25th (6.7) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Pitt | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 124th (34.00) | 19th (41.22) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 87th (19.00) | 73rd (19.64) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 19th (17.00) | 25th (17.30) |
Avg. Punt Return | 53rd (8.75) | 125th (2.62) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 26th (4.20) | 60th (7.00) |
Field Goal Attempts | 7-10 | 9-10 |
PAT | 27-27 | 19-20 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 59.5 percent chance to win against the Panthers. Louisville has an FPI rating of 6.7 (39th overall), whereas Pitt has an FPI rating of 6.4 (43rd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 47.42 percent chance to take down the Panthers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 4.2 (58th overall), whereas Pitt has an SP+ rating of 7.8 (39th overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Post-Week 4: 5.71
- Post-Week 5: 4.65
- Post-Week 6: 5.03
- Personal Prediction: Pitt 28, Louisville 27
(Photo via Charles LeClaire - USA TODAY Sports)
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