Where Louisville Stands One Month From Selection Sunday
(Photo of Chris Mack: Steven Branscombe-USA TODAY Sports)
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Considering the amount of extra time and effort that went into making sure that there is a 2020-21 college basketball season, it almost seems hard to believe that it is close to reaching the end.
We are now just four weeks away from Selection Sunday, where the NCAA's 10-member selection committee will determine the field for the Division I Men's Basketball Tournament.
Louisville might not be contending for one of the No. 1 seeds in the tournament, but they are squarely in the tournament as of this writing. The Cardinals currently sport an 11-4 overall record, along with a 6-3 mark in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Barring some sort of catastrophic collapse, Louisville should expect to crack the field of 68. The real question is, where are they projected to be seeded? Is their NCAA Tournament resume favorable? Can it be improved?
There's still plenty of basketball to be played between now and Selection Sunday, which of course, has the potential to drastically change where Louisville will be seeded in the tournament. But until then, let's take a look at how the Cardinals are sitting with a month left to go.
Louisville currently is ranked No. 34 in the NET, or NCAA Evaluation Tool, a metric that the committee uses in part when determining the tournament field. Using strictly the NET, Louisville is currently slated to receive a No. 9 seed.
Using BracketMatrix, a website which determines the average seed from over 130 expert 'bracketologists', and this projection is not far off. As of Feb. 13, Louisville is a No. 8 seed alongside Xavier, UCLA and BYU. The Cardinals are as high as a No. 6 seed, and as low as a No. 11.
But the NET is only one factor. What really matters is Louisville's overall tournament resume. Thanks to WarrenNolan, we can take a look at the "Team Sheet" at which the selection committee uses for program resumes.
Louisville's NET Team Sheet as of Feb. 13
*click here for enhanced team sheet*
For those unfamiliar, tournament resumes are separated into quadrants, with Quadrant 1 being the best and Quadrant 4 being the worst. Quadrants are classified based on the opponent's NET ranking as well as the location of the game. For example, wins against a No. 30 team at home and a No. 75 team on the road are both Quadrant 1 wins.
Louisville only has one certifiably bad loss down at Miami, as it classifies as Quadrant 3. But on the other hand, the Cards don't really have any marquee wins. They are 0-3 in Quadrant 1, and their best victories are Quadrant 2 wins against Virginia Tech and Seton Hall, both at home. However, they are 7-0 in Quadrant 2.
Can their resume be improved? Absolutely. Out of their six upcoming games currently on the schedule, four of them fall under Quadrant 1 (at UNC, at Duke, at Virginia Tech, Virginia), with the other two in Quadrant 2 (Syracuse, Notre Dame). Louisville just has to hope that they don't get any of them postponed.
Speaking of which, if the Cardinals don't get any of their five currently postponed games rescheduled, it would not be the worst thing in the world. Just two of them are under Quadrant 1 (at Syracuse, at Virginia), two more at Quadrant 3 (NC State, Pitt) with the final one barely falling under Quadrant 4 (Boston College).
It's hard to see Louisville playing themselves out of an at-large bid, unless the bottom completely falls out. That being said, they can still improve their current standing and earn an even better seed for March Madness.
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