What a Dream, Realistic and Disappointing Season Looks Like for Louisville in 2022

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program is heading into the fourth year of the Scott Satterfield era, and the Cardinals are coming off of a pair of disappointing campaigns. Satterfield guided the Cardinals to an 8-5 mark in 2019, but followed that up with a 4-7 record in 2020 and 6-7 record last season.

As we head into a pivotal year under Satterfield, the pressure to start consistently winning is starting to mount for Louisville. So what does a dream season, realistic season and disappointing season look like for the Cardinals in 2022? We break it down here:

Dream Season

While the ultimate dream would be to go a perfect 12-0 this upcoming season, we're going to stay grounded in reality here. Looking at their schedule, and the talent that they have coming back, going 9-3 or better is what a dream season would look like for Louisville in 2022.

In order to do this, Louisville has to make meaningful improvements in the areas that plagued them last year. They have to get more consistent pressure in the backfield from the defensive line, the retooled secondary has to replicate their success from 2020, and the wide receiver room collectively has to take a step forward. But above anything else, they have to finish games strong and not falter in the fourth quarter like they did several times last season.

It might seem like a stretch to go 9-3 or even 10-2, but it's possible. Quarterback Malik Cunningham is back for his final year, and is sure to help the offense put up numbers. The defense has several key returners such as cornerback Kei'Trel Clark and linebacker Yasir Abdullah, and addressed a plethora of needs in the transfer portal.

If Louisville is to achieve this dream season, they'll have to deliver against some of the more high-profile teams. Yes, they need to take care of business against teams like Syracuse, USF and James Madison. But they'll have to take down several of the following teams: Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson, NC State and Kentucky. Three of those games will be at Cardinal Stadium, so it helps their chances.

Realistic Season

Now let's come back down to Earth a little bit. If we're talking about realistic expectations for the Louisville football program heading into the 2022 season, that likely sits at an 8-4 record, maybe even 7-5 depending on how things play out.

The real questions with this team aren't really with the offense. Sure, Louisville lost a lot of production at wide receiver, but the pieces are still there. Not to mention that the Cardinals have arguably the best offensive line in the conference and an incredibly deep running back room. Barring a return of the turnover issues from 2020, or a multitude of injuries - namely to Cunningham - the offense is fine here.

What will really be the difference between a dream season and a realistic one will be the efforts on the defensive side of the ball. While the offense certainly contributed to some of the fourth quarter issues Louisville has last year, the defense is what was the primary catalyst here.

There is reason to believe the defensive line *should* get better, considering the addition of Jermayne Lole and the upward trajectories of YaYa Diaby and Ashton Gillotte, but this has been a unit that has been underwhelming for a few seasons now. Over in the secondary, there are several new pieces like Quincy Riley, M.J. Griffin and Jarvis Brownlee Jr., but time will tell if the infusion of new talent with tested returners like Clark and Kenderick Duncan will get the secondary back on track.

Now matter what happens on either side of the ball, Louisville can't drop so many one-score games or completely lose their momentum in the second half. They need to limit the games they drop against teams they should beat on paper, but also come through against one - maybe two - of the more elite teams on the schedule if they want to carry any momentum into 2023. Especially with the loaded recruiting class that they have.

As previously mentioned, 8-4 seems like the most realistic path here for Louisville. 7-5 is bordering on disappointment levels, but if that includes multiple wins against teams like Clemson, NC State and Kentucky, and limits the amount of execution errors from both players and coaches, I think it could be somewhat justifiable.

Disappointing Season

Given how blazing hot that Louisville has been on the recruiting trail, it seems very unlikely that Scott Satterfield is on any sort of hot seat even with how the end of last season played out - barring a 2018 Bobby Petrino type of collapse. But it can get warm.

Considering Louisville does have the pieces to win on both sides of the ball, especially on offense, a 6-6 record or worse seems like the benchmark for a disappointing season. In this case, we would probably see the defense still struggle to come through in pressure situations or make strides in their most deficient areas, and the offense might run into some snags along the way as well, whether it be due to injuries or execution.

Most fans are firmly back on board with Satterfield given the leaps and bounds they have made over the last few months out on the recruiting trail. But if Louisville doesn't look markedly better in 2022 and doesn't produce a winning season, a lot of fans will be jumping off. No matter how you slice it, Satterfield has to win in 2022. It might not cost him his job this year if that doesn't come to pass, but it might not earn him an extension on his current deal that expires after 2024, either.

(Photo of Scott Satterfield: Michael Clevenger - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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