Is Bowl Eligibility Still Attainable for Louisville?
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Under normal circumstances, many fans would usually take the position the Louisville football program finds them in. Heading into the season, the Cardinals were viewed as a team where bowl eligibility was the absolute minimum, with the potential to exceed expectations and go 7-5 or even 8-4 to end the regular season.
Halfway through the season, Louisville sits at 3-3. On paper, they are right on track to meet the minimum expectations set forth prior to the season. In reality, simply reaching a bowl game may not be as big of a slam dunk as once thought.
It's not the fact that Louisville sits right at .500, it's the manner in which they got there. Two and a half weeks ago, there was a very real shot that the Cardinals could take a hold of the Atlantic Division lead, and put themselves in the driver's seat to reach the ACC Championship.
Instead, the Cardinals started to establish a pattern in their win against Florida State, which then bled into their losses to Wake Forest and Virginia. A mix of a conservative late-game approach, as well as their own mistakes, miscues and missed opportunities has led to Louisville putting forth an inability to complete games.
Fortunately, the bye week is here, and that will allow Louisville to do a little bit of soul searching before having to retake the gridiron. Shifts in philosophy and an uptick in play aside, is reaching a bowl game still attainable for this team?
First, let's take a look at the remaining teams on the docket. Right off the bat, there are a couple games that jump out in which Louisville *should* capture a victory: vs. Syracuse and at Duke.
The Orange have played Florida State and Wake Forest close, and the Blue Devils have a pair of Power Five wins against Kansas and Northwestern. Outside of that, nothing really jumps out about either team. If Louisville can't take down either team, many they don't deserve to go to a bowl.
Those two teams aside, now things get interesting.
The Cardinals return from the bye week to host Boston College, go on the road to face No. 22 NC State, return home to play Clemson, then end the regular season against Kentucky after facing Syracuse and Duke.
Even after losing All-ACC caliber quarterback Phil Jurkovec for the year, Boston College has still been a formidable team. They took down Mizzou in overtime, then were one play away from handing Clemson another loss. The problem with the Eagles, is that their non-conference schedule was so bad, that we still don't truly have a grasp on how good they are.
Going on the road to face NC State will be a tough endeavor. While they did look flat in their loss to Mississippi State, taking down Clemson is never an easy feat. QB Devin Leary is playing great football, and their one-two punch at running back in Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person is one of the best in the ACC.
Yes, Clemson is having a down year. QB DJ Uiagalelei is not performing like many thought he would, and their offense as a whole can't seem to score against anybody. However, the Tigers still have a roster that is littered with four- and five-star talent. Are they beatable? Sure. Will it come easy? Absolutely not.
Then we have Kentucky. Their non-conference schedule might be cupcakes galore, but taking down Florida and LSU is not something to discount. That defense is one of the best in the nation, and they still run the football at a very high caliber.
But what do the stats say? Do they give Louisville a chance?
Using ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly SP+ metrics, we have some idea as to how likely it is. FPI gives Louisville a 57.5 percent chance to reach six wins, and currently has them favored against Boston College, Syracuse and Duke. As for SP+, they only have Louisville favored against the Orange and Blue Devils, and give them 48.04 percent shot to reach a bowl.
In a nutshell, it all boils down to which Louisville team shows up. They have the potential to take down any of their remaining six opponents, but also could fall to any of them if not careful. Reaching the postseason is still very much a realistic goal for this team, it just all depends on the effort and execution they put forth.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Reinhold Matay - USA TODAY Sports)
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