Louisville, Satterfield Entering Crucial Stretch of Games for Longterm Future
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - I'll be the first to tell you that I, as well as many others in the city of Louisville, thought that the Louisville football program would be in a much different spot than they are in right now. When I was putting together my fall camp season predictions, I thought Louisville would be 2-1 through their first three games, but there was very real opportunity to go 3-0.
I thought that, given recent history, they would blow the doors off of Syracuse. I thought that UCF was a winnable game, but would be tough given their offensive M.O. and tough road environment. I thought that Florida State would be a victory, partly because I wasn't all that sold that FSU would be "back".
I don't need to spend much time rehashing what actually came to pass. A listless blowout to the Orange, a surprising bounce-back against UCF and then a soul-crushing loss to the Seminoles. Of course Louisville doing exactly the opposite of what I thought they would do over their first three games. Figures.
It's not so much that Louisville currently sits at 1-2, which by itself it already bad given what we all thought this team could be capable of. No, it's how they've looked in the process. The offense is struggling to establish any sort of rhythm on a consistent basis, and turnovers have been a common theme in their two losses. The defense, even with their good showing at UCF, can't tackle to save their life. Both sides of the ball can't seem to stop getting out of their own way with the amount of penalties they commit.
What is perhaps the most alarming is that, outside of the running backs and maybe the defensive line, none of the position groups are living up to what we thought the were capable of.
Quarterback Malik Cunningham is still an electric runner, but seems to have regressed as a passer. The offensive line has looked average after being billed as perhaps the best unit on the entire team. The retooled wide receiver room has struggled to generate separation at times. The linebackers, except for Yasir Abdullah and Ben Perry, have had M.A.'s and missed tackles galore. The passing defense has been extraordinarily inconsistent.
As a result, the noise has already started. Sure, it got started early by Louisville fans after the listless showing against Syracuse, but after the most recent loss to FSU, where Louisville had multiple opportunities to establish firm control and couldn't do it, the hot seat chatter is starting to heat up (pun intended).
Related: Blown Opportunities, Costly Mistakes Sink Louisville in Loss to Florida State
Is Satterfield on *the* hottest seat in America? Absolutely not. That title is in a three-way possession between Georgia Tech's Geoff Collins, Auburn's Bryan Harsin and Colorado's Karl Dorrell. But when discussing the hot seat tier of coaches below those three, Satterfield's name is starting to come up around the country.
After the Florida State game, a matchup that encapsulated everything that had ever gone wrong in the Satterfield era, it's not hard to see why. Frankly, I've reached a point where I don't blame Louisville fans for feeling that way. Results speak for themself.
However, it's only three games into the season. By definition, there is still time to turn things around. But, considering how back loaded Louisville's schedule is, there isn't much time at all. In fact, the next three games on the Cardinals' schedule - vs. USF, at Boston College and at Virginia - could be crucial to not only generate momentum down the stretch and save their season, but tantamount for Satterfield to even have his job after this season.
First, let's look at Louisville's upcoming opponent in USF. While I did highlight a very real possibility for a Bulls upset because of their rushing attack (you can read that breakdown here), on paper, this is a team that Louisville *should* have little trouble beating down. QB Gerry Bohanon has struggled as a passer to open the season, and despite a few good individual pieces in the defense, they have had trouble stopping anyone.
Related: Behind Enemy Lines: Five Questions for Bulls247's Will Turner
Now let's look at the next two games: at Boston College and at Virginia. Before the season, I believed that these two matchups had "trap game" written all over them. I'm really high on both Eagles HC Jeff Hafley and their QB Phil Jurkovec, and games in Charlottesville against the Cavaliers have always been weird.
Even with just a three-game sample size, not only are these two games extremely winnable, these are games I expect Louisville to win. Boston College's offensive line has been absolutely atrocious, and has almost single-handed cost them games. Virginia sorely misses offensive coordinator Robert Anae (who went to... Syracuse!), and quarterback Brennan Armstrong, who was one of the most prolific passers in the nation last year, has looked borderline mediocre.
This is a three-game stretch where Louisville not only has to go undefeated, but look much better in the process. I'm not saying every game has to be a blowout, but the energy, effort, and execution has to be lightyears better than it was in their first three games of the year.
Why? Because it all gets much, much harder after these next three games.
Following a bye week after the Virginia game, Louisville then hosts both Pitt and Wake Forest in consecutive weeks. Have either the Panthers or Demon Deacons lived up to their potential early in the season? No, and for various reasons. But, as of right now, they are both well-deserved top-25 teams at No. 24 and No. 21.
After that, the Cardinals will host James Madison for the ultimate trap game, then they'll end the season with murderer's row: at Clemson, vs. NC State and at Kentucky.
Clemson's offense hasn't been perfect with D.J. Uiagalelei under center, but with an absolutely loaded defense, they're deserving of their No. 5 ranking. Plus we all know how raucous of an environment Death Valley is. No. 12 NC State had to escape East Carolina in their opener, but their defense could challenge Clemson's for best in the ACC. Then there's No. 8 Kentucky, who has looked dominant on both sides of the ball. Yes, it's been largely against cupcakes, but Florida is still Florida.
For those counting at home, that's five ranked teams in the final six games of the year. The final three are all in the top 15, with two of those three being on the road in well-known hostile environments.
If Louisville has *any shot* of being competitive in the second half of the season, and breaking .500 to get back to a bowl game, it all starts with their next three games. Not only do the Cardinals have to win all three, they need to do so in a manner that shows there is sweeping improvement not only with the players, but with coaching tendencies as well - especially on offense.
If you drop any one of these next three, you can almost kiss a bowl game goodbye. A Louisville team that many in the preseason, including myself, could get to seven, eight or even nine wins, might struggle to even get five.
If Louisville does get to that point, then athletic director Josh Heird has a hard decision to make. The Cardinals will have endured their third consecutive losing season, and even with a top flight recruiting class on the way - at least for now - there would be little to suggest they will be developed properly or put in the best situation to succeed.
But there's only one thing that ensures this decision doesn't even get put on the table. Or at least over the next three games - Hell, maybe even the next six since Pitt and Wake Forest have shown they are mortal and you will play them at home.
Just win, baby.
(Photo of Scott Satterfield: Jared Anderson - State of Louisville/Louisville Report)
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