Tale of the Tape & Prediction: Louisville vs. Miami

MatthewMcGavic

Louisville (1-0, 0-0 ACC) is set to begin conference play by hosting Miami (1-0, 0-0 ACC) at Cardinal Stadium on Saturday, Sept. 19 at 7:30 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the visiting Hurricanes

- Rankings:

Miami (FL)
Louisville

Associated Press

17th

18th

USA Today Coaches Poll

18th

16th

SOS

20th

27th

SP+

12th

18th

FPI

33rd

14th

- Offensive Statistics:

Miami (FL)
Louisville

Total Offense

13th (495.0)

14th (487.0)

Passing Yards

31st (158.0)

8th (343.0)

Yards Per Completion

35th (8.78)

2nd (18.05)

Rushing Yards

3rd (337.0)

27th (144.0)

First Downs Gained

18th (25)

24th (22)

3rd Down Con. %

23rd (41.2%)

9th (56.3%)

4th Down Con. %

1st (100%)

24th (33.3%)

Red Zone Con. %

2nd (100%)

26th (75.0%)

Turnovers Lost

12th (1)

26th (2)

Interceptions Thrown

1st (0)

19th (1)

Fumbles Lost

22nd (1)

22nd (1)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

29th (8.00)

35th (10.00)

Sacks Allowed

22nd (2.00)

12th (1.00)

Avg. Time of Possession

22nd (30:56)

15th (32:33)

Key: National Rank out of 42 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Defensive Statistics:

Miami (FL)
Louisville

Total Defense

12th (285.0)

9th (248.0)

Passing Yards Allowed

21st (205.0)

7th (129.0)

Rushing Yards Allowed

11th (80.0)

16th (119.0)

3rd Down Defensive %

5th (20.0%)

13th (33.3%)

4th Down Defensive %

1st (0.0%)

15th (33.3%)

First Downs Allowed

7th (14)

6th (12)

Red Zone Defensive %

27th (100%)

16th (75.0%)

Turnovers Gained

N/A

21st (1)

Interceptions Caught

N/A

N/A

Fumbles Recovered

N/A

22nd (1)

Sacks Per Game

27th (1.00)

9th (3.00)

TFL Per Game

10th (8.0)

6th (10.0)

Defensive Touchdowns

N/A

N/A

Key: National Rank out of 42 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Special Teams Statistics:

Miami (FL)
Louisville

Net Punting

2nd (47.5)

41st (22.25)

Avg. Kickoff Return

16th (20.5)

37th (8.50)

Avg. Punt Return

18th (6.67)

15th (7.00)

Blocked Kicks

N/A

N/A

Blocked Kicks Allowed

1st (0)

38th (1)

Blocked Punts

N/A

N/A

Blocked Punts Allowed

1st (0)

41st (1)

Field Goal Percentage

1-1

0-0

PAT Percentage

4-4

5-5

Key: National Rank out of 42 Active FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 76.7% chance to win against Miami. Louisville's FPI of 12.1 is the fourteenth-highest of any FBS school participating this fall, while Miami's FPI of 4.3 ranks at No. 33 in the country.

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2020-09-17 at 1.40.34 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have just a 45.55% chance to take down the Hurricanes. According to SP+ ratings, Miami has the second-highest rating of any opponent on Louisville's schedule behind Notre Dame.

- Personel Prediction: Louisville 35, Miami 34 - D'Eriq King & Miami's run game will give Louisville some fits on the defensive end, but the Cardinals' explosive offense can throw more than enough counter punches to lead the way to a win.

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