Tale of the Tape & Prediction: Louisville vs. Notre Dame

MatthewMcGavic

Louisville (1-3, 0-3 ACC) concludes their three-game road trip against No. 4 Notre Dame (3-0, 2-0) on Saturday, Oct. 17 at 2:30 p.m. EST. Here's how the visiting Cardinals stack up against the Fighting Irish:

- Rankings:

Notre Dame
Louisville

Associated Press Top 25

4th

NR

USA TODAY Coaches Poll

4th

NR

SOS

67th

35th

SP+

7th

41st

FPI

8th

54th

- Offensive Statistics:

Notre Dame
Louisville

Total Offense

14th (475.0)

32nd (424.3)

Passing Yards

57th (204.3)

32nd (246.5)

Yards Per Completion

29th (12.77)

23rd (13.51)

Rushing Yards

5th (270.7)

32nd (177.8)

First Downs Gained

45th (71)

24th (85)

3rd Down Con. %

25th (45.9%)

51st (39.7%)

4th Down Con. %

8th (80.0%)

36th (58.3%)

Red Zone Con. %

36th (86.7%)

16th (93.3%)

Turnovers Lost

10th (2)

73rd (11)

Interceptions Thrown

5th (1)

65th (5)

Fumbles Lost

15th (1)

75th (6)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

4th (3.00)

72nd (10.00)

Sacks Allowed

11th (1.00)

67th (3.50)

Avg. Time of Possession

31st (31:14)

18th (32:59)

Key: National Rank out of 76 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Defensive Statistics:

Notre Dame
Louisville

Total Defense

16th (323.3)

32nd (389.8)

Passing Yards Allowed

25th (212.0)

31st (233.0)

Rushing Yards Allowed

21st (111.3)

42nd (156.8)

3rd Down Defensive %

2nd (18.2%)

49th (44.6%)

4th Down Defensive %

22nd (44.4%)

23rd (50.0%)

First Downs Allowed

12th (48th)

41st (70)

Red Zone Defensive %

46th (85.7%)

48th (86.7%)

Turnovers Gained

55th (3)

55th (3)

Interceptions Caught

59th (1)

59th (1)

Fumbles Recovered

29th (2)

29th (2)

Sacks Per Game

18th (3.00)

47th (1.75)

TFL Per Game

9th (9.00)

27th (7.3)

Defensive Touchdowns

N/A

N/A

Key: National Rank out of 76 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- Special Teams Statistics:

Notre Dame
Louisville

Net Punting

36th (39.00)

68th (33.47)

Avg. Kickoff Return

19th (24.25)

50th (18.45)

Avg. Punt Return

15th (14.75)

26th (10.00)

Blocked Kicks

11th (1)

11th (1)

Blocked Kicks Allowed

1st (0)

51st (1)

Blocked Punts

3rd (1)

N/A

Blocked Punts Allowed

1st (0)

66th (1)

Field Goal Percentage

3-5

4-4

PAT Percentage

16-16

14-14

Key: National Rank out of 76 Active FBS Teams (Value).

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have just a 12.8% chance to win against Notre Dame. Louisville has an FPI rank of 3.6 (54th overall) and Notre Dame's FPI of 17.8 is the highest out of the Cardinals 2020 opponents.

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2020-10-15 at 2.13.25 PM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have just a 14.62% chance to take down the Fighting Irish. According to SP+ ratings, Louisville is favored in three of the remaining seven games of the season.

- Personal Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Louisville 21 - The Fighting Irish have one of the best offensive lines in nation, which will already make for a tough time containing the run game. Coupled with the inauspicious start on offense, and it's hard to see Louisville escaping with a win.

(Photo of Dorian Etheridge, Ian Book: Matt Cashore/USA TODAY Sports)

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