Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-2, 1-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia (3-2, 1-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 9 at 3:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:
- Rankings:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | NR | NR |
USA TODAY Coaches Poll | NR | NR |
SOS | 57th | 64th |
SP+ | 47th | 60th |
FPI | 42nd | 59th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 7th (526.6) | 36th (441.8) |
Scoring Offense | 39th (34.2) | 52nd (32.2) |
Passing Yards | 2nd (398.0) | 35th (273.2) |
Yards Per Completion | 30th (13.54) | 57th (12.77) |
Rushing Yards | 97th (128.6) | 55th (168.6) |
First Downs Gained | 5th (134) | 45th (110) |
3rd Down Con. % | 18th (49.3%) | 74th (38.7%) |
4th Down Con. % | 107th (37.5%) | 64th (54.5%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 107th (73.9%) | 17th (94.4%) |
Turnovers Lost | 71st (7) | 53rd (6) |
Interceptions Thrown | 64th (4) | 22nd (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 62nd (3) | 96th (4) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 90th (6.40) | 27th (4.40) |
Sacks Allowed | 108th (3.00) | 34th (1.60) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 37th (31:15) | 10th (33:27) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 97th (412.8) | 107th (434.8) |
Scoring Defense | 86th (27.6) | 91st (28.2) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 61st (218.0) | 110th (261.2) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 110th (194.8) | 97th (173.6) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 74th (38.6%) | 43rd (34.3%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 101st (66.7%) | 77th (55.6%) |
First Downs Allowed | 95th (108) | 109th (116) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 23rd (72.2%) | 119th (94.7%) |
Turnovers Gained | 106th (4) | 75th (6) |
Interceptions Caught | 97th (2) | 33rd (5) |
Fumbles Recovered | 71st (2) | 102nd (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 76th (2.00) | 40th (2.60) |
TFL Per Game | 95th (5.0) | 61st (6.0) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Virginia | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 68th (39.35) | 50th (40.68) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 112th (16.00) | 47th (22.33) |
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense | 7th (13.33) | 86th (22.18) |
Avg. Punt Return | 80th (6.33) | 24th (13.60) |
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense | 118th (14.83) | 45th (4.67) |
Field Goal Attempts | 6-8 | 5-6 |
PAT | 19-19 | 20-21 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 48.8 percent chance to win against the Cavaliers. Louisville has an FPI of 2.8 (59th overall), whereas Virginia has a rating of 5.7 (42nd overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 49.53 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.4 (60th overall), whereas Virginia has a rating of 8.1 (47th overall). Following the loss to Wake Forest, Louisville is favored in two of their seven remaining games on the schedule (Syracuse, Duke).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Post-Week 4: 6.14
- Post-Week 5: 6.19
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 41, Virginia 38.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Geoff Burke - USA TODAY Sports)
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