Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Boston College
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-3, 1-2 ACC) is set to face Boston College (4-2, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 23 at 4:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles:
- Rankings:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Associated Press Top 25 | NR | NR |
USA Today Coaches Poll | NR | NR |
SOS | 99th | 33rd |
SP+ | 43rd | 53rd |
FPI | 58th | 55th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 72nd (388.8) | 25th (452.0) |
Scoring Offense | 51st (30.8) | 39th (32.3) |
Passing Yards | 84th (218.0) | 29th (272.7) |
Yards Per Completion | 55th (12.58) | 39th (13.19) |
Rushing Yards | 55th (170.8) | 47th (179.3) |
First Downs Gained | 95th (122) | 76th (130) |
3rd Down Con. % | 16th (47.5%) | 91st (36.4%) |
4th Down Con. % | 69th (50.0%) | 50th (58.3) |
Red Zone Con. % | 47th (87.5%) | 10th (95.5%) |
Turnovers Lost | 68th (9) | 40th (7) |
Interceptions Thrown | 57th (5) | 9th (2) |
Fumbles Lost | 73rd (4) | 103rd (5) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 64th (5.17) | 29th (4.17) |
Sacks Allowed | 49th (1.83) | 20th (1.33) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 69th (29:29) | 17th (32:15) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 35th (329.8) | 115th (449.3) |
Scoring Defense | 28th (19.5) | 90th (29.2) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 38th (203.3) | 124th (298.8) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 41st (126.5) | 71st (150.5) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 10th (29.6%) | 59th (37.2%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 72nd (54.5%) | 93rd (63.6% |
First Downs Allowed | 17th (101) | 86th (142) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 58th (81.2%) | 126th (96.0%) |
Turnovers Gained | 96th (7) | 77th (8) |
Interceptions Caught | 44th (6) | 31st (7) |
Fumbles Recovered | 118th (1) | 118th (1) |
Sacks Per Game | 115th (1.33) | 19th (3.00) |
TFL Per Game | 124th (3.7) | 24th (6.8) |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| Boston College | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 19th (42.62) | 51st (40.76) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 1st (61.0) | 52nd (21.75) |
Avg. Kickoff Return Def. | 40th (18.64) | 51st (19.38) |
Avg. Punt Return | 117th (3.36) | 18th (13.60) |
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense | 55th (6.14) | 53rd (5.88) |
Field Goal Attempts | 6-7 | 9-12 |
PAT | 23-24 | 23-24 |
Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 64.6 percent chance to win against the Eagles. Louisville has an FPI of 3.1 (55th overall), whereas Boston College has a rating of 2.7 (58th overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 51.88 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 6.7 (53rd overall), whereas Boston College has a rating of 8.4 (43rd overall). Following the loss to Virginia, Louisville is favored in three of their six remaining games on the schedule (BC, Syracuse, Duke).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.97
- Post-Week 1: 4.63
- Post-Week 2: 5.71
- Post-Week 3: 6.49
- Post-Week 4: 6.14
- Post-Week 5: 6.19
- Post-Week 6: 5.47
- Post-Week 7: 5.74
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Boston College 31.
(Photo of Hassan Hall: Winslow Townson - USA TODAY Sports)
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