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Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Boston College

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (3-3, 1-2 ACC) is set to face Boston College (4-2, 0-2 ACC) on Saturday, Oct. 23 at 4:00 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Eagles:

- Rankings:

Boston CollegeLouisville

Associated Press Top 25

NR

NR

USA Today Coaches Poll

NR

NR

SOS

99th

33rd

SP+

43rd

53rd

FPI

58th

55th

- Offensive Statistics:

Boston CollegeLouisville

Total Offense

72nd (388.8)

25th (452.0)

Scoring Offense

51st (30.8)

39th (32.3)

Passing Yards

84th (218.0)

29th (272.7)

Yards Per Completion

55th (12.58)

39th (13.19)

Rushing Yards

55th (170.8)

47th (179.3)

First Downs Gained

95th (122)

76th (130)

3rd Down Con. %

16th (47.5%)

91st (36.4%)

4th Down Con. %

69th (50.0%)

50th (58.3)

Red Zone Con. %

47th (87.5%)

10th (95.5%)

Turnovers Lost

68th (9)

40th (7)

Interceptions Thrown

57th (5)

9th (2)

Fumbles Lost

73rd (4)

103rd (5)

Tackles For Loss Allowed

64th (5.17)

29th (4.17)

Sacks Allowed

49th (1.83)

20th (1.33)

Avg. Time of Possession

69th (29:29)

17th (32:15)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

Boston CollegeLouisville

Total Defense

35th (329.8)

115th (449.3)

Scoring Defense

28th (19.5)

90th (29.2)

Passing Yards Allowed

38th (203.3)

124th (298.8)

Rushing Yards Allowed

41st (126.5)

71st (150.5)

3rd Down Defensive %

10th (29.6%)

59th (37.2%)

4th Down Defensive %

72nd (54.5%)

93rd (63.6%

First Downs Allowed

17th (101)

86th (142)

Red Zone Defensive %

58th (81.2%)

126th (96.0%)

Turnovers Gained

96th (7)

77th (8)

Interceptions Caught

44th (6)

31st (7)

Fumbles Recovered

118th (1)

118th (1)

Sacks Per Game

115th (1.33)

19th (3.00)

TFL Per Game

124th (3.7)

24th (6.8)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

Boston CollegeLouisville

Net Punting

19th (42.62)

51st (40.76)

Avg. Kickoff Return

1st (61.0)

52nd (21.75)

Avg. Kickoff Return Def.

40th (18.64)

51st (19.38)

Avg. Punt Return

117th (3.36)

18th (13.60)

Avg. Punt Ret. Defense

55th (6.14)

53rd (5.88)

Field Goal Attempts

6-7

9-12

PAT

23-24

23-24

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Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 64.6 percent chance to win against the Eagles. Louisville has an FPI of 3.1 (55th overall), whereas Boston College has a rating of 2.7 (58th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Screen Shot 2021-10-21 at 11.29.22 AM

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 51.88 percent chance to take down the Eagles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 6.7 (53rd overall), whereas Boston College has a rating of 8.4 (43rd overall). Following the loss to Virginia, Louisville is favored in three of their six remaining games on the schedule (BC, Syracuse, Duke).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

  • Preseason: 6.97
  • Post-Week 1: 4.63
  • Post-Week 2: 5.71
  • Post-Week 3: 6.49
  • Post-Week 4: 6.14
  • Post-Week 5: 6.19
  • Post-Week 6: 5.47
  • Post-Week 7: 5.74

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 35, Boston College 31.

(Photo of Hassan Hall: Winslow Townson - USA TODAY Sports)

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